Week 16 Results | 10W-22L-2P | -2.430 Units Loss

By costanza | Costanza Sports Betting | 15 Dec 2020

This is a weekly overview of my personal sports trading results on teams from the Belgian Jupiler League documenting my journey toward long-term profit with some insights on my overall approach.

Week 16 was one of those where things simply didn't click. I had 1 big position which didn't turn out as I anticipated making up for the biggest part of my loss this week. Other matches just didn't have the proper setups with red cards killing most of the action and the odds overall were quite sharp. I wrote last week that my staking was going more toward flat betting again but with smaller stakes setting myself a goal to increase them each week a bit at a time which is what I started to do. There was a lot less action though and I got more conservative on bigger bets after seeming Genk lose their match.

There are 3 weeks of matches still to be played before the end of the year and the winter break and I will continue just as planned. Most bets will be smaller flat bets on which I will keep increasing the actual stakes a bit.

I kept the bold selection to an absolute minimum for good reasons and actually managed to not lose there going 1W-1L-1P on the 3 selections. I do still expect a correction to the downside at some point in the pre-game selections but for now, I managed to dodge that bullet.

I did pull the trigger to bet 1 bigger bet again seeing some good value on it also taking it up on Copytip and the SBC Discord Channel as an official selection. I didn't take it in BTC as odds available there were just too much below what I was comfortable with. It did end up losing which didn't really help when it comes down to my overall confidence of making bigger calls. I will see where this goes as the season moves forward.

Copytip /Discord Bets Season 2020-2021

11/12/2020 Racing Genk +0 @ 1.945 FT 1-0 LOST
01/11/2020 Antwerp +0 @ 2.500 FT 1-0 LOST
03/10/2020 OHL vs Zulte 1H U 1.25 @ 1.989 HT 1-0 HALF WON
30/08/2020 Club Brugge -0.25 @ 1.846 (20' 0-0) FT 2-1 WON
22/08/2020 Zulte-Waregem Team Total over 2 @ 1.924 (37' 1-0) FT 4-1 WON

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I'm still trending above the expected profit line but this week also shows how little is needed to drop back down especially since I started increasing the bet size of my regular small bets a bit. The pattern often goes like this: Get in a big hot run building up a lot of confidence, move up in stakes causing some more doubt, see some regression to the mean kick in to lose confidence and get in somewhat of a negative spiral quickly losing ground because stakes now are higher. I went through this cycle countless times and will be very aware of it now which is the reason I'm only slowly increasing my stakes week-by-week at the moment. Right now there is not all too much to worry about and even with these cycles, everything so far always worked out well in the long run thanks to proper bankroll management (which very few sports bettors have)

Previous Personal Results 2020-2021

 Regular Season 2020-2021 Results
 722 Bets | 316W-321L-86P | 190.299 Staked | +9.537u Profit | +5.01% ROI

Season 2019-2020 | 1406 Bets +2.48% ROI
Season 2018-2019 | 1090 Bets +2.47% ROI
Season 2017-2018 | 821 Bets +7.22% ROI

I'll be back with a lot more previews and bets later today & the results next week...

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Costanza Sports Betting

Blog With Previews & Bets from The Belgian Jupiler league and Transparant Record Keeping

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