A 20 year institutional investor learning about the crypto space.
18 Oct 2021 1 minute read 0 comments NZFX
With the arrival of the first US approved Bitcoin ETF's comes the necessity of thinking about how much risk a BTC ETF will add to traditional portfolios (stocks, bonds, cash, etc). Readers of this blog will remember months ago where I taught you h...
14 Oct 2021 1 minute read 1 comment NZFX
I've posted this study before but am providing the quick update below. Using this summer's lows, I plot ETH's recovery vs. the last two big sell-offs. You can see this that nearly 90 days from the low, this recovery looks an awful lot like 2017! ...
8 Oct 2021 1 minute read 4 comments NZFX
Diversification is one of the most powerful risk mitigation tools available to investors. When done correctly, it may actually be the only free lunch available to investors. Doing it effectively isn't always easy though. In an ideal diversification...
7 Oct 2021 1 minute read 7 comments NZFX
There are numerous ways to measure risk but one of the more common is to look at the variability of an asset's returns. As I've gotten deeper into crypto, the level of volatility that is deemed 'normal' is almost mind numbing to me coming from inves...
6 Oct 2021 2 minute read 2 comments NZFX
A couple of weeks ago, a few friends asked me to weigh with my view of what it would take for more institutions to start moving into the crypto space. Why? For 5 years, I ran strategic research for a $100 billion+ pension fund and one of my respon...
5 Oct 2021 1 minute read 3 comments NZFX
A while back I posted a seasonal study I did on Bitcoin and Ethereum. Whereas September has been a historically bad month, thankfully October has been historically strong! Over the time period studied (limited by data availability.... which I'm wo...
4 Oct 2021 1 minute read 3 comments NZFX
Hi friends- Below I'm pasting an update of the periodic table of monthly crypto returns I introduced a few posts back. As a reminder, I took most of the 'large caps' of the crypto space and looked at their monthly returns year to date. I've autom...
28 Sep 2021 1 minute read 5 comments NZFX
On Sept 6th, I posted a fairly high conviction post that I thought ETH was getting close to overheating. At that time, it was trading around 3,900 USD. Today- it's trading in the 2,800 USD range, a drop of about 25%. That call was based on a cha...
27 Sep 2021 2 minute read 7 comments NZFX
Last week I read an article in Bitcoin magazine that looks at China's decision to ban Bitcoin through the lens of game theory. Link below so you can read for yourself. Within the realm of game theory study resides the famous 'prisoner's dilemma' an...
23 Sep 2021 1 minute read 8 comments NZFX
This will be a ridiculously short post. Just had a thought on inflation that I'd really appreciate feedback on. Not meant to be a political comment in any sense; purely a technical inquiry. Really hope this gets some thoughtful responses. Rightly...
