A 20 year institutional investor learning about the crypto space.
22 Sep 2021 1 minute read 4 comments NZFX
Call me crazy but I get more excited when markets go down then I do when they go up as it provides long-term investors with the opportunity to lower their cost basis. The trick of course is knowing when to buy as catching a falling knife is never fu...
21 Sep 2021 2 minute read 2 comments NZFX
I've seen a few headlines today referring to the Evergrande issue as "China's Lehman Moment". I have no idea whether it will be the case or not but I wanted to post briefly on liquidity. In 2008, I was working at a large global investment bank, watc...
20 Sep 2021 2 minute read 6 comments NZFX
Hi friends- I'm sure most of you have seen periodic table like representations of asset class returns. I'm sure one exists for crypto returns but I couldn't find it so I built one for a dozen of the largest coins (excluding stable coins and BNB) th...
16 Sep 2021 1 minute read 9 comments NZFX
Cardano is one of the most widely held and hyped assets in the crypto arena these days. Its $77 billion USD market cap trails only Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of size. With a high profile founder that delivers regular public updates, the impress...
15 Sep 2021 2 minute read 7 comments NZFX
As readers of my earlier posts know, my crypto journey began as a skeptic, advanced to hodling, and is now heading towards investing. In my own case, given my personality and time constraints, I've chosen not to day trade but rather to adopt a lon...
14 Sep 2021 1 minute read 3 comments NZFX
There's an old saying common among equity traders: Sell in May and go away. That got me curious about what returns look like across the calendar for both BTC and ETH so I downloaded the daily data and went to work. Happy to share the results below...
13 Sep 2021 1 minute read 1 comment NZFX
Friends- As we all know, speculative price forecasts abound in this industry. Given the extreme returns realized, entertaining them is one of my favorite things to do! After a few moments of fantasy though, most of the time I'll turn my brain on ag...
9 Sep 2021 1 minute read 2 comments NZFX
Hi friends- When is ETH likely to re-take its old highs? Today I'm comparing the recovery experienced so far in ETH since its summer 2021 low point vs. the last 2 ETH recoveries from drawdowns of at least 50%. Something interesting has emerged. Firs...
8 Sep 2021 1 minute read 1 comment NZFX
Hi friends- A few days ago, before the sell-off, I posted an update of the StratVal analysis I use in my efforts to avoid buying in overheated markets. I've used this for years on a variety of asset classes with good success. A big thank you to th...
6 Sep 2021 1 minute read 12 comments NZFX
Hi friends- Below I'm pasting an update of the 50 day strat val analysis for both ETH and BTC. You an see that with a 50 day look back, relative to its own risk-adjusted history we are getting quite extended here. You could almost think of this l...
