A while back I posted a seasonal study I did on Bitcoin and Ethereum.   Whereas September has been a historically bad month, thankfully October has been historically strong!  Over the time period studied (limited by data availability.... which I'm working on improving), return wise October has been the #1 month for Bitcoin.   Of note, these are not point to point returns, but average daily returns.   It has also had strong high hit rate with 71% of the Octobers between 2014 and 2020 having positive returns.  

I'm also pasting below my predictive model.  With the strong start to October, we are back on track for my year end estimate.  As a reminder, the yellow is realized, out of sample as I built this at the end of August.  Please take with a grain of salt as should be the case with all predictive models.

As always, this is not investment advice and please do your own research.

Cheers,

NZFX

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