On Sept 6th, I posted a fairly high conviction post that I thought ETH was getting close to overheating. At that time, it was trading around 3,900 USD. Today- it's trading in the 2,800 USD range, a drop of about 25%. That call was based on a chart I posted generated from a tool I've used for many years called (StratVal). It's not fool proof, but more often than not, this tool has served me well by letting me know when things are getting overheated or cheap. How? It measures an assets risk adjusted return relative to its own history. Below I'm pasted an updated view, which shows a more neutral scenario.
So where are we now? In another post, I presented a chart that tracked ETH's recovery from its most recent drawdown vs. recoveries in 2017 and 2019. I also provided a graph that blended the two and compared the current recovery to the average. Updates pasted below.
So where are we? Right on track relative to prior recoveries, as measured by days from the low point. Interestingly, we are kind of at the intersection of the 2017 and 2019 recoveries. One should never rely on past performance as new news could certainly knock things off track. This especially seems true today with the regulatory clouds seemingly gathering. Thus, as a hodlr who prefers to buy when fear is high and things are cheap, I'm still a bit cautious here. More to come when market action warrants it.
As always, this is not investment advice. Simply trying to share some tools to help educate and inform. Hope this update is helpful.