From skeptic to hodlr to investor | Publish0x
From skeptic to hodlr to investor
From skeptic to hodlr to investor

From skeptic to hodlr to investor

In this article, I apply a quantitative tool used by institutional investors to to try to determine where fair value is for Bitcoin. My hope is that it will help people avoid the mistake of buying high and selling low.


Quick question on inflation

23 Sep 2021 1 minute read 8 comments NZFX

This will be a ridiculously short post.  Just had a thought on inflation that I'd really appreciate feedback on.  Not meant to be a political comment in any sense; purely a technical inquiry.  Really hope this gets some thoughtful responses.  Rightly...

So you're thinking about buying the dip.....

22 Sep 2021 1 minute read 4 comments NZFX

Call me crazy but I get more excited when markets go down then I do when they go up as it provides long-term investors with the opportunity to lower their cost basis.  The trick of course is knowing when to buy as catching a falling knife is never fu...

A few lessons on liquidity during times of stress

21 Sep 2021 2 minute read 2 comments NZFX

I've seen a few headlines today referring to the Evergrande issue as "China's Lehman Moment".  I have no idea whether it will be the case or not but I wanted to post briefly on liquidity. In 2008, I was working at a large global investment bank, watc...

Periodic Table of Monthly Crypto Returns

20 Sep 2021 2 minute read 6 comments NZFX

Hi friends- I'm sure most of you have seen periodic table like representations of asset class returns.   I'm sure one exists for crypto returns but I couldn't find it so I built one for a dozen of the largest coins (excluding stable coins and BNB) th...

A closer look at Cardano (ADA)

16 Sep 2021 1 minute read 9 comments NZFX

Cardano is one of the most widely held and hyped assets in the crypto arena these days.  Its $77 billion USD market cap trails only Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of size.  With a high profile founder that delivers regular public updates,  the impress...

Crypto dashboards in Google Sheets

15 Sep 2021 2 minute read 7 comments NZFX

  As readers of my earlier posts know, my crypto journey began as a skeptic, advanced to hodling, and is now heading towards investing.  In my own case, given my personality and time constraints, I've chosen not to day trade but rather to adopt a lon...

What is the worst month for Bitcoin and Ethereum returns?

14 Sep 2021 1 minute read 3 comments NZFX

There's an old saying common among equity traders:  Sell in May and go away. That got me curious about what returns look like across the calendar for both BTC and ETH so I downloaded the daily data and went to work.  Happy to share the results below...

Where will BTC end the year?

13 Sep 2021 1 minute read 1 comment NZFX

Friends- As we all know, speculative price forecasts abound in this industry.  Given the extreme returns realized, entertaining them is one of my favorite things to do!  After a few moments of fantasy though, most of the time I'll turn my brain on ag...

When is ETH likely to re-take its old highs? A brief study in historical recoveries

9 Sep 2021 1 minute read 2 comments NZFX

Hi friends- When is ETH likely to re-take its old highs? Today I'm comparing the recovery experienced so far in ETH since its summer 2021 low point vs. the last 2 ETH recoveries from drawdowns of at least 50%.  Something interesting has emerged. Firs...

Follow up to ETH overheating

8 Sep 2021 1 minute read 1 comment NZFX

Hi friends- A few days ago, before the sell-off, I posted an update of the StratVal analysis I use in my efforts to avoid buying in overheated markets.   I've used this for years on a variety of asset classes with good success.  A big thank you to th...