What is the worst month for Bitcoin and Ethereum returns?

What is the worst month for Bitcoin and Ethereum returns?


There's an old saying common among equity traders:  Sell in May and go away.

That got me curious about what returns look like across the calendar for both BTC and ETH so I downloaded the daily data and went to work.  Happy to share the results below for anyone that is interested.  I double checked everything but that doesn't mean I'm above making an error so please do your own research to verify.

We'll take a look at Bitcoin first.  I looked at both the average return for each month as well as the % of months that the return was positive.  As you'll see in the graph below, using data since 2014, September is the worst month in terms of average returns.  The good news is that October has been the best!  The second graph shows that September also has a low hit rate with only 28.6% of the Septembers between 2014 and now (MTD) having positive returns. 

c4ea0053ebdbde7b0980d2871527dd6e5fba24af78ae7ec10936d83cd5770399.jpg

 

8ee5f1273dff637ad20e5854f63de83c00f8fc4c9f7153c3529c5638a880d100.jpg

Turning our attention to Ethereum you'll see below that September is also the worst month for it in terms of average returns.  In terms of the hit rate, only 1/3 of the Septembers between Sept 2015 and now have had positive returns. 

 

6ec51ef5102f6ec7d1a1f1fdae2ee740306b774066ad44927809db9c9d46d2db.jpg

8d12d9bf9e37a69bd89e8368f8f81799ba70ab7e985b5885a101b87c315b6a65.jpg

Both of these data sets are pretty limited but I still thought this was interesting.   Not sure if there are fundamental reasons why September is a bad month.  Any ideas?

As always, this is not investment advice.  Simply trying to share useful information to the community.

Cheers,

NZFX

How do you rate this article?


56

0

NZFX
NZFX

Pursuing interesting conversations that help lead to truth. Twitter: @NZFX6


From skeptic to hodlr to investor
From skeptic to hodlr to investor

In this article, I apply a quantitative tool used by institutional investors to to try to determine where fair value is for Bitcoin. My hope is that it will help people avoid the mistake of buying high and selling low.

Send a $0.01 microtip in crypto to the author, and earn yourself as you read!

20% to author / 80% to me.
We pay the tips from our rewards pool.