Friends-

As we all know, speculative price forecasts abound in this industry.  Given the extreme returns realized, entertaining them is one of my favorite things to do!  After a few moments of fantasy though, most of the time I'll turn my brain on again before making a decision.  So what is a realistic Bitcoin forecast for year end?

A number of good models exist, my favorite being Plan B's stock to flow model.   I wanted to look at things more simply though and see what answer a logarithmic regression model gives.   I can 100% promise you that this model will end up being incorrect.  What it can do though is calibrate you in terms of magnitude if the future trajectory looks similar with what we have seen in the past.

Running a logarithmic regression of daily data from inception to 9/1/21, I came up with this.  The blue is the actual BTC price in sample, the red is the actual BTC price out of sample, and the yellow is the best fit line.  So what does year end look like?

Zooming in and looking at the model from from about a year ago and carrying it out to 12/31, it estimates that BTC will end the year around 51k.

Can it go much higher or much lower?  Of course.   I still like to look at stuff like this to make sure my decision making is grounded on realistic expectations.

As always, I hope this is helpful and it is not investment advice.   Please do your own research!

Cheers

NZFX