Analysis

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Mt. Gox Still Holds $4 Billion in Bitcoin. The October Deadline Is 90 Days Away. And Everyone Thinks It's Priced In.

10 Jul 2026 9 minute read 6 comments Crypto Strategist $0.16

On February 28, 2014, Mt. Gox filed for bankruptcy. The world's largest Bitcoin exchange, which at its peak handled over 70% of all global BTC trading, simply stopped processing withdrawals. Roughly 850,000 Bitcoin vanished. Creditors lost everything...

Google Just Published a Paper Saying Quantum Computers Could Crack Bitcoin in 9 Minutes. Here's Why the Real Threat Is Not Satoshi's Wallet.

9 Jul 2026 11 minute read 6 comments Crypto Strategist $0.28

On March 30, 2026, Google Quantum AI published a 57-page paper that changed the conversation about Bitcoin's security. The researchers, working with the Ethereum Foundation and Stanford University, estimated that a sufficiently powerful quantum compu...

Bitcoin Miners Just Capitulated With $12.7 Billion on the Line. History Says That's the Bottom. Here's Why the Data Tells a Completely Different Story.

8 Jul 2026 9 minute read 2 comments Crypto Strategist $0.13

On June 14, 2026, at block 953,568, Bitcoin did something it has only done ten times before. The network's mining difficulty fell 10.09%. The adjustment dropped the computational barrier from 138.96 trillion to 124.93 trillion, making it the second-l...

The Bitcoin Power Law: A Boring Straight Line That Has Outlasted Every Price Target I Ever Heard

1 Jun 2026 4 minute read 0 comments SatoshiMacro $0.17

Originally published at SatoshiMacro. The original is the authoritative version. I have a confession that will not endear me to anyone selling a trading course. After more than a decade around markets, first on an institutional desk here in Sydney an...

The Bitcoin Power Law: A Statistical Fit Trying to Look Like Physics, and Why It Has Still Caught Every Cycle Extreme Since 2013

29 May 2026 6 minute read 0 comments SatoshiMacro $0.09

  Originally published at SatoshiMacro. This is a syndicated re-post of editorial research from satoshimacro.com; the original is the authoritative version. Giovanni Santostasi and Harold Christopher Burger built something useful in 2018. They took B...

The Mayer Multiple: A Decade-Old 200-Day Moving Average Ratio That Still Catches Every Bitcoin Cycle Extreme

28 May 2026 5 minute read 0 comments SatoshiMacro $0.09

Originally published at SatoshiMacro. This is a syndicated re-post of editorial research from satoshimacro.com; the original is the authoritative version. Trace Mayer published a formula in 2014 that should have stopped working by now. It is simple t...

The Bitcoin Risk Metric: Benjamin Cowen's Cycle-Position Scale and How I Use It Inside a 48-Signal Confluence Model

28 May 2026 5 minute read 0 comments SatoshiMacro $0.01

Originally published at SatoshiMacro. This is a syndicated re-post of editorial research from satoshimacro.com; the original is the authoritative version. There's a Bitcoin cycle indicator that has caught every major top since 2013 and every major bo...

Pi Cycle Top: Three Hits, One Miss, and Why It Belongs in a Confluence Model Not a Standalone Trigger

26 May 2026 2 minute read 0 comments SatoshiMacro $0.08

Originally published at satoshimacro.com. Pi Cycle Top is the simplest of the four classical Bitcoin cycle-top indicators in continuous use. The whole formula: cross signal fires when 111-Day Moving Average crosses above 350-Day Moving Average times...

MVRV Z-Score: The Awe & Wonder Formula, What It Got Right at Three of Four Cycle Tops, and the 4Y-MA Proxy Honest Disclosure

26 May 2026 6 minute read 0 comments SatoshiMacro $0.06

Originally published at satoshimacro.com. The single most-cited Bitcoin valuation indicator since 2018 The MVRV Z-Score was introduced by Murad Mahmudov and David Puell in 2018 as an institutional-grade cycle indicator. The canonical formula: Z-Score...

The SatoshiMacro Model: Where Bitcoin Sits in Its Cycle Right Now

25 May 2026 3 minute read 0 comments SatoshiMacro $0.33

I'm Govind. I traded allocated institutional capital at a Sydney proprietary trading firm for years before stepping out to build SatoshiMacro, a publication covering Bitcoin and Ethereum cycle research, on-chain analysis, and broker selection. This i...