Originally published at SatoshiMacro. This is a syndicated re-post of editorial research from satoshimacro.com; the original is the authoritative version.
Trace Mayer published a formula in 2014 that should have stopped working by now. It is simple to the point of feeling almost trivial: take Bitcoin's price, divide it by the 200-day moving average, call the result the Mayer Multiple. Above 2.4 you are in cycle-top territory. Below 0.8 you are in accumulation. That is it.
In a world where on-chain analytics platforms charge USD 39 per month for tools with dozens of inputs and proprietary calibration, a 12-year-old ratio that uses one data point should not catch every Bitcoin cycle extreme. But it has. December 2013 top. December 2017 top. April 2021 top. November 2021 echo top. October 2025 ATH. January 2015 bottom. December 2018 bottom. November 2022 bottom. Eight inflection points, one ratio.
This piece is about why the Mayer Multiple still works, what its honest limitations are, and how I use it inside the broader SatoshiMacro Model confluence framework.
What the Mayer Multiple actually measures
Bitcoin's price divided by its 200-day simple moving average. That is the entire formula. The output is a ratio, typically running between 0.3 and 4.0 across cycle history.
The 200-day SMA is human-behaviour-anchored. Retail traders, institutional desks, and on-chain analysts all reference it as a meaningful trend baseline. When price is significantly above the 200-day, the market is over-stretched relative to long-trend, which historically marks cycle tops. When price is significantly below, the market is under-stretched, which marks cycle bottoms.
The genius of Mayer's framing was not the indicator itself. The 200-day moving average was already in use everywhere. The genius was identifying the specific thresholds (above 2.4 marks cycle top, below 0.8 marks accumulation) that worked across multiple cycles. That observation has held for more than a decade.
What the Mayer Multiple has caught historically
The full record across every documented Bitcoin cycle inflection since 2013:
Cycle tops (Mayer above 2.4):
- December 2013: high reading at the USD 1,150 peak
- December 2017: high reading at the USD 19,500 peak
- April 2021: cycle-top zone at the USD 64,800 first-top peak
- November 2021: cycle-top zone at the USD 69,000 echo top. Pi Cycle missed November 2021. Mayer caught it.
- October 2025: cycle-top zone at the USD 126,198 all-time high
Cycle bottoms (Mayer below 0.8):
- January 2015 at USD 178
- December 2018 at USD 3,200
- November 2022 at USD 15,700
Two notes on this record. First, the Mayer Multiple was the indicator that caught November 2021 when most other cycle-top indicators missed it. That is not because Mayer is better. It is because the 2021 echo top had a different shape than the cycle-aligned tops, and Mayer's specific math captured that shape.
Second, the threshold of 2.4 has been holding for 12 years. In crypto, that is a long time. Long enough to consider it more than coincidence, not long enough to consider it a constant.
Where the Mayer Multiple sits inside the SatoshiMacro Model
The Mayer Multiple feeds Tier 1 Valuation at 25 per cent of total model weight. Inside Tier 1, it sits alongside:
- MVRV Z-Score realised-cap normalised deviation
- Pi Cycle Top 111DMA crossing 350DMA times 2 momentum-divergence
- Bitcoin Power Law log-log regression deviation
- Bitcoin Risk Metric Benjamin Cowen 0-to-1 multi-factor composite
The Tier 1 Valuation cluster is the cycle-extreme detector. When three or more Tier 1 signals fire simultaneously above the cycle-top threshold, the SMM gauge surfaces a cycle-position warning.
The Mayer Multiple's role in that cluster is the steady, simple, behavioural-anchor signal. While the more complex indicators are calculating realised caps and standard deviations, Mayer is just asking "how far above the 200-day are we?" and that simple question has kept providing value cycle after cycle.
Honest limitations of the Mayer Multiple
Three things to know before you trust it:
- The 200-day MA is slow, so Mayer is slow. The indicator catches cycle tops within a few weeks of the actual peak, but it does not tell you when to start tactical reduction in real-time. By the time Mayer prints 2.4, you have often already missed the optimal disposal entry by 2 to 4 weeks. Useful for confluence framing, not for tactical timing.
- The threshold of 2.4 is heuristic, not derived. Trace Mayer set this based on backtesting against the 2013 and 2017 cycle tops. It has held through 2021 and 2025. But it is not a mathematical constant. It is an empirical observation that could break.
- Mayer cannot distinguish between a cycle top and a strong bull-leg run-up. The 2017 cycle top printed Mayer in the upper-3 range in December. Late 2020, mid-bull-leg before the actual top, Mayer also printed near 3.0. Without confluence (other indicators), you would have potentially exited a real bull leg early.
Australian-resident framing: the CGT discount ladder
The Mayer Multiple threshold structure maps cleanly onto a 12-month CGT discount eligibility ladder. Here is how I think about it as a Sydney-based investor:
- Mayer above 2.4: distribution-eligible band. Tranche disposal across this window. Prioritise lots purchased outside the previous 12 months so the 50 per cent CGT discount applies.
- Mayer between 1.0 and 1.5: neutral or late-bull band. No tactical action required.
- Mayer between 0.8 and 1.0: early-accumulation band. Start sizing in. Begin the 12-month CGT clock on new lots.
- Mayer below 0.8: deep accumulation. Add aggressively if the capital is available.
For Australian residents considering disposal-versus-rebuy tactical decisions, the crypto tax-loss harvesting calculator on the site walks through the Part IVA framework, the cost-base method choice, and the carry-forward record-keeping mechanics.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Mayer Multiple?
The Mayer Multiple is Bitcoin's current price divided by its 200-day simple moving average. The output is a ratio. Values above 2.4 historically mark cycle-top territory. Values below 0.8 mark cycle-bottom accumulation territory.
Who created the Mayer Multiple?
Trace Mayer published the formula and threshold framework in 2014. The underlying 200-day moving average was already in widespread use. Mayer's contribution was identifying the specific cycle-position thresholds that worked across multiple cycles.
How accurate is the Mayer Multiple?
The indicator has caught every documented Bitcoin cycle top since 2013 (December 2013, December 2017, April 2021, November 2021 echo top, October 2025) and every documented bottom (January 2015, December 2018, November 2022) inside its respective threshold bands. The November 2021 echo top is notable because Mayer caught it when Pi Cycle Top missed it.
Is the Mayer Multiple better than MVRV Z-Score or Pi Cycle Top?
No. Each indicator measures a different cycle-position dimension. Mayer measures distance from the 200-day moving average (price-statistical). MVRV Z-Score measures market-cap normalised deviation from realised cap (on-chain valuation). Pi Cycle Top measures the 111DMA / 350DMAx2 momentum-divergence cross. The best play is confluence: run all of them inside a single framework and look for clusters where three or more fire simultaneously.
Where can I see the current Mayer Multiple reading?
The live current reading, full historical chart back to 2013, and the cycle-comparison view that overlays current-cycle position against 2012, 2016, and 2020 trajectories are all on satoshimacro.com/tools/crypto/cycle-indicators/bitcoin-mayer-multiple/. The model is free with no paywall.
Closing
The Mayer Multiple is one of the oldest cycle-position indicators in active use. It is simple to the point of feeling trivial, but it has caught every documented Bitcoin cycle inflection since 2013. The honest framing is that it is a position classifier. It tells you where the cycle currently sits relative to historical extremes, not what happens next.
Live SatoshiMacro Model with current Mayer Multiple reading and all 48 underlying signals: satoshimacro.com/tools/crypto/satoshimacro-model/.
Disclosure: I built and maintain SatoshiMacro. The model is free and ad-supported (broker affiliate links on the main site, not in this post). This post is editorial, not financial advice.
