Originally published at satoshimacro.com.

Pi Cycle Top is the simplest of the four classical Bitcoin cycle-top indicators in continuous use. The whole formula: cross signal fires when 111-Day Moving Average crosses above 350-Day Moving Average times 2. That is it. Two moving averages, one multiplier, one crossover. No on-chain data needed - just price history.

Why the formula works (mostly). The 111DMA tracks short-to-medium-term momentum. The 350DMA times 2 tracks long-term trend with a euphoria-zone amplifier. When 111DMA crosses above 350DMA times 2, price is moving up so fast that medium-term momentum has caught up to twice the long-term trend - a mathematical fingerprint of parabolic blow-off-top action.

Historical fires:

- 2013-04 (first 2013 peak): fired roughly 17 days before the local peak
- 2017-12-17: fired 1 day before the 2017 cycle top
- 2021-04-12: fired 4 days before the April 2021 first peak
- 2025-10-06: fired at or near the 2025 cycle top (the timing is still being debated as of May 2026 - the high-water print was October but retrospective cycle-top labelling needs a full year of post-peak data)

That is three confirmed clean fires at cycle tops plus the in-progress 2025 fire. The famous miss is 2021-11, where Pi Cycle did NOT fire at the echo peak even though price went 8% above the April high. Same root cause as the MVRV Z-Score 2021-11 miss: the double-top structure with a 5-month gap allowed the 350DMA to catch up between the two peaks, suppressing the crossover at the second peak.

Pi Cycle Top fires are extraordinarily precise when they happen. The window between Pi Cycle fire and actual cycle top has been zero to four days in three of three clean fires. There is no other classical cycle-top indicator with that precision.

What Pi Cycle Top does not do:

1. It does not fire on echo tops or double-tops where the 350DMA has had time to catch up between peaks. The 2021-11 miss is documented and will repeat on any future double-top cycle structure.

2. It does not give graduated position-sizing signal. It is binary: not fired, or fired. Mayer Multiple and MVRV Z-Score give continuous readings that let you scale into and out of positions; Pi Cycle gives you a single moment to act.

3. It does not give a bottom signal. Pi Cycle Bottom (a separate indicator - 150DMA crossing 471DMA times 0.745) is the analogous bottom signal, and it works but with broader precision.

Why I use Pi Cycle Top inside a confluence model (the SatoshiMacro Model Tier 1 Valuation, 25% weight) rather than as a standalone exit trigger:

1. The 2021-11 miss is a structural blind spot, not a one-off. Any cycle with double-top potential needs other signals corroborating Pi Cycle's silence (or, when Pi Cycle does fire, corroborating its fire).

2. The binary fire/no-fire mechanic does not let you express partial conviction. SMM Tier 1 combines Pi Cycle with five other valuation signals (Mayer, MVRV Z-Score, Power Law, NUPL proxy, cycle-position percentile) to produce a graduated 0-100 tier reading.

3. Position-sizing under uncertainty needs probabilistic input, not deterministic triggers. "Pi Cycle has fired AND Mayer > 2.3 AND sentiment-tier > 80 AND macro-tier neutral" gives you a 4-of-5 tier-fire confluence pattern. That is the level of confidence at which I actually take cycle-exit action on real capital. A single Pi Cycle fire by itself is not.

For Australian residents holding parcels approaching the 12-month CGT discount eligibility threshold: Pi Cycle Top firing is NOT a reason to disposal-act if the holding is at month 9-11 of the 12-month clock. The 50% CGT discount asymmetry at the 47% top marginal rate means waiting 4-12 weeks for eligibility is almost always net-positive even if price drops 15-25% in that window. The cycle-tactical timing argument loses to the tax-asymmetry-math argument in nine out of ten realistic AU-resident scenarios.

Full Pi Cycle Top chart with all four cycle fires annotated, the documented 2021-11 cycle top miss disclosed, and the current 111DMA / 350DMA times 2 readings.

Disclosure: I built and maintain SatoshiMacro. The model is free and ad-supported (broker affiliate links on the main site, not in this post). This post is editorial, not financial advice.