SatoshiMacro
SatoshiMacro

SatoshiMacro

Quantitative Bitcoin and Ethereum cycle research from a former institutional trader. Home of the SatoshiMacro Model (SMM), a 48-signal cycle confluence framework that has called 7 of 7 historical BTC cycle tops and bottoms in their correct zones, plus the ETH variant (SMM-ETH). Coverage spans on-chain metrics, derivatives positioning, ETF flows, macro context, and broker/exchange research. Editorial, not promotional. Full models and data free at satoshimacro.com.


The Bitcoin Power Law: A Boring Straight Line That Has Outlasted Every Price Target I Ever Heard

1 Jun 2026 4 minute read 0 comments SatoshiMacro

Originally published at SatoshiMacro. The original is the authoritative version. I have a confession that will not endear me to anyone selling a trading course. After more than a decade around markets, first on an institutional desk here in Sydney an...

The Bitcoin Power Law: A Statistical Fit Trying to Look Like Physics, and Why It Has Still Caught Every Cycle Extreme Since 2013

29 May 2026 6 minute read 0 comments SatoshiMacro

  Originally published at SatoshiMacro. This is a syndicated re-post of editorial research from satoshimacro.com; the original is the authoritative version. Giovanni Santostasi and Harold Christopher Burger built something useful in 2018. They took B...

The Mayer Multiple: A Decade-Old 200-Day Moving Average Ratio That Still Catches Every Bitcoin Cycle Extreme

28 May 2026 5 minute read 0 comments SatoshiMacro

Originally published at SatoshiMacro. This is a syndicated re-post of editorial research from satoshimacro.com; the original is the authoritative version. Trace Mayer published a formula in 2014 that should have stopped working by now. It is simple t...

The Bitcoin Risk Metric: Benjamin Cowen's Cycle-Position Scale and How I Use It Inside a 48-Signal Confluence Model

28 May 2026 5 minute read 0 comments SatoshiMacro

Originally published at SatoshiMacro. This is a syndicated re-post of editorial research from satoshimacro.com; the original is the authoritative version. There's a Bitcoin cycle indicator that has caught every major top since 2013 and every major bo...

Pi Cycle Top: Three Hits, One Miss, and Why It Belongs in a Confluence Model Not a Standalone Trigger

26 May 2026 2 minute read 0 comments SatoshiMacro

Originally published at satoshimacro.com. Pi Cycle Top is the simplest of the four classical Bitcoin cycle-top indicators in continuous use. The whole formula: cross signal fires when 111-Day Moving Average crosses above 350-Day Moving Average times...

MVRV Z-Score: The Awe & Wonder Formula, What It Got Right at Three of Four Cycle Tops, and the 4Y-MA Proxy Honest Disclosure

26 May 2026 6 minute read 0 comments SatoshiMacro

Originally published at satoshimacro.com. The single most-cited Bitcoin valuation indicator since 2018 The MVRV Z-Score was introduced by Murad Mahmudov and David Puell in 2018 as an institutional-grade cycle indicator. The canonical formula: Z-Score...

The SatoshiMacro Model: Where Bitcoin Sits in Its Cycle Right Now

25 May 2026 3 minute read 0 comments SatoshiMacro

I'm Govind. I traded allocated institutional capital at a Sydney proprietary trading firm for years before stepping out to build SatoshiMacro, a publication covering Bitcoin and Ethereum cycle research, on-chain analysis, and broker selection. This i...