I'm Govind. I traded allocated institutional capital at a Sydney proprietary trading firm for years before stepping out to build SatoshiMacro, a publication covering Bitcoin and Ethereum cycle research, on-chain analysis, and broker selection.

This is my first post on Publish0x. To start, I want to introduce the framework I built, show you the historical receipts, and walk through what it's saying right now.

What is the SatoshiMacro Model?

The SatoshiMacro Model (SMM) is a quantitative Bitcoin cycle confluence framework. It blends 48 signals across six weighted tiers:

• Cycle Timing and Mass Psychology (30% weight): halving cycle position, drawdown from ATH, quarterly return percentile
• Valuation (25%): Power Law deviation, Mayer Multiple, MVRV Z-Score, Pi Cycle Top and Bottom, NUPL distance
• Sentiment (20%): Fear and Greed Index, Google Trends, funding rates, open interest, options skew, futures basis
• Rotation (10%): Bitcoin Dominance, Altcoin Season Index, ETH/BTC ratio percentile
• Miner (10%): Hash Ribbons, Puell Multiple, hashrate vs 365D peak, difficulty adjustment momentum
• Macro (5%): DXY, M2 growth, yield curve, VIX, S&P 500, Nasdaq, gold (inverse)

Each signal gets percentile-ranked against its expanding-window history. That phrase matters: only data available at the time is used for the historical reading. No lookahead bias. The tier scores are weighted into a single 0 to 100 composite, then a calibration curve stretches the upper half so historical cycle tops register where they should, in the Cycle Top zone (85 to 100).

Does it actually work?

This is the part most cycle indicators dodge. A model that "sort of" lines up with 2021 is useless if it failed in 2013 and 2017.

SMM has called 7 of 7 historical BTC cycle inflections in their correct zones:

• 2013-12 top: calibrated 92.2 (Cycle Top zone)
• 2015-01 bottom: 27.6 (Accumulation zone)
• 2017-12 top: 95.6 (Cycle Top zone)
• 2018-12 bottom: 29.7 (Accumulation zone)
• 2021-04 top: 89.3 (Cycle Top zone)
• 2021-11 top: 85.1 (Cycle Top zone)
• 2022-11 bottom: 23.2 (Accumulation zone)

No cherry-picked windows. No "if you remove these three signals" caveats. The full 48-signal panel against every known cycle inflection. The piecewise calibration curve, anchor points, and per-cycle scores are all documented openly on the methodology section of the live tool, so you can audit the construction yourself.

What is it saying today?

The current SMM reading sits in the Caution zone, not Cycle Top.

This distinction matters. Caution means several diversifying signals (sentiment, rotation, late-cycle valuation) are pushing toward late-cycle territory, but the full confluence required for a historical-grade top is not yet present. The Sentiment and Rotation tiers are elevated. The Valuation and Miner tiers are firm but not extreme. The Macro tier is mixed.

A reading in this zone historically precedes a final melt-up leg before the cycle top resolves. It does not guarantee one. It means the risk distribution is shifting from "long volatility is asymmetrically good" to "long volatility is asymmetrically expensive."

What would flip the model from Caution to Cycle Top?

Three things, roughly in order of how much each would move the composite:

1. Mayer Multiple breaching 2.0 to 2.4, which would push the Valuation tier toward the cycle-top register
2. Pi Cycle Top trigger (111DMA crossing above 350DMA times 2), which has fired within days of every major BTC cycle peak
3. Sustained Extreme Greed on Fear and Greed (above 85) for four or more weeks alongside funding rates above 0.05%, which is the sentiment-exhaustion confirmation pattern

Each of these is observable. The model updates daily. You can watch the same dashboard I do.

How to use this

SMM is not a "sell signal." It is a confluence framework. My personal interpretation, which is not financial advice:

- Caution zone is where you stop adding leverage, start sizing into stablecoin reserves, and re-check your exit plan
- Cycle Top zone (85 plus) is where the historical data says distribution risk dominates upside risk
- Accumulation zone (0 to 25) is the historical fat-pitch buying window

The model is free. The full 48-signal breakdown, historical chart, embed widget, methodology, and JSON data feed are all open at SatoshiMacro Model (SMM). There is also an ETH variant (SMM-ETH) with a 5-of-6-tier composite of 28 ETH-specific signals.

I will post here on Publish0x when the model meaningfully changes zone, or when a specific tier triggers a noteworthy signal. Follow if you want the next reading.

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Disclosure: I built and maintain SatoshiMacro. The model is free and ad-supported (broker affiliate links on the main site, not in this post). This post is editorial, not financial advice.