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Pantera CEO: Bitcoin Could Peak at $115k Following Halving

By author_nan | News | 5 May 2020


  • CEO Dan Morehead's letter to investors indicates strong optimism for Bitcoin
  • States that potential price could possibly reach over $100,000 following halving
  • Bitcoin showing resilience on a macro level

Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead, in a letter sent to investors on April 30, expressed some confidence in Bitcoin’s growth, specifically stating the asset could grow to over $500,000 by August 2021, after having analyzed the performance of Bitcoin (BTC) with other assets in the lead up to the halving.

Pantera analyzed the stock-to-flow ratio across each halving in order to assess the impact it could have. The analysis begins with a look into the performance before the halving, reading,

Bitcoin has historically bottomed 459 days prior to the halving, climbed leading into it, and then exploded to the upside afterwards. The post-halving rallies have averaged 446 days – from the halving to the peak of that bull cycle. In this cycle, the market did in fact trough 514 days before the halving.

This leads Morehead to talk about Bitcoin’s potential price, which he states could reach eye-watering values in theory as a consequence of the reduction in supply,

The reduction is supply is only 40% as great as in 2016. If this relationship holds, that would imply about 40% as much price impulse — bitcoin would peak at $115,212 /BTC....Just sayin’ that there’s more than a 50-50 chance bitcoin goes up – and goes up big.

 

Morehead has previously compared Bitcoin to assets like gold and oil:

Saying that Bitcoin will come of age and holding similar view points to that of Bloomberg analysts who said that Bitcoin is experiencing a “leap in maturation.” As seen in the chart above, oil has tanked severely since the start of the year, as a consequence of the pandemic and price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Worries of a recession have made investors cagey about equity as well, with numerous markets around the tanking.

Pantera Capital is a blockchain investment fund that has invested in numerous projects, including the likes of Ampleforth (AMPL), Bakkt, Brave, Circle, Polychain Capital, Ripple, Shapeshift and Zcash (ZEC).

Quantitative Easing Could Drive Bitcoin’s Price Up

Morehead has also spoken on the quantitative easing measures that governments are taking to, in an effort to stop the economic damage wrought by the COVID-19 lockdowns. This has received much criticism from those inside the cryptocurrency space, with Binance’s Changpeng Zhao saying that it could push the price of Bitcoin up - while investors Mark Cuban and Chamath Palihapitya also suggesting that it could have a price-rallying effect on the digital asset market.

Such predictions are the monumental sums that cryptocurrency supporters and hodlers are hopeful - some even expectant of - for. Billionaire investor Tim Draper has put Bitcoin’s price at $250,000 by 2023, which is a more restrained prediction, though one he is very confident of. Six figure sums quite common for those invested in the asset class, often placed in a 5 to 10 year period. 

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