This is a weekly overview of my personal handicapping and live betting results on teams from the Belgian Jupiler League with some insights on my overall approach.
Some solid results in week 5 as my 2 main positions ( 1st half Under in Zulte-Waregem vs Charleroi & Beerschot +0.5 ) ended up in clear winners. I'm back in the green on the season but I can't help but feel somewhat disappointed as my handicapping has been pretty good while I failed to really capitalize on it since I've been way too cautious in my stakes since I do have quite some self-doubt. If you are in betting and the Asian handicaps that have higher limits for a long time, you really learn to respect the market because you fundamentally know it the edges are quite thin.
Doing some analysis it shows that I corner bets so far cost me quite some (-22.09% ROI on 41 Bets, 17W-21L so mostly some bigger live bets lost, pre-game corner markets tend to have low limits) while both the pre-game (+13.97% ROI on 34 bets) and live-bets (+5.53% on 84 Bets) are quite profitable. My average stake is also way too low coming in at 0.285 units.
I am tracking the actual performance of the pre-game selections I am sharing in all my preview posts and they have been performing extremely well.
The gap is huge though as I only managed to win around 2.5 units from these myself compared to the 9.739 in case I would have taken them all with flat 1 unit stakes. This is due to multiple facts. To start the limits often don't allow me to take the bets at full stake, many of them are multiple bets on similar positions or split stakes and 1 unit in my regular betting currently represents a big bet with full confidence.
No official pre-game or Live bets on Copytip or the SBC Discord this week as I always like to see how it goes the first week after an international break. I do continue to share most of the live bets I take on the SBC Discord though and plan on continue doing this as it brings about consistency for myself in the first place and I know at least a couple are watching them.
Discord / Copytip Live-Bets Season 2020-2021
30/08/2020 Club Brugge -0.25 @ 1.846 (20' 0-0) FT 2-1 Bet WON
22/08/2020 Zulte-Waregem TT over 2 @ 1.924 (37' 1-0) FT 4-1 Bet WON
I take all my Live bets with my Betting Broker Sportmarket Pro who always provide the best offers on the market with a 1 click solution and don't limit winning players offering high limits. For more info check my Sportmarket Pro Review
It's great to be back in the green zone and I hope to be able to build on that as I do feel I have quite a good grip on the league at the moment after a difficult start with unusual circumstances. I'm still a bit below what I expect to win over the long run but the season is still very early on and I only have 159 bets in so far. If anything, volume really is key to betting and being able to tell your actual performance. Anyway, I'm very much enjoying the process of watching the matches, handicapping the league and trying to beat these betting markets even after all these years and am looking forward already to the action next 7 days!
Personal Results 2020-2021
Week 05 Results 41 Bets | 23W-14L-04P | Staked 09.880u | +2.590u Profit..
Week 04 Results 39 Bets | 16W-18L-05P | Staked 12.258u | -0.604u Loss..
Week 03 Results 44 Bets | 19W-17L-08P | Staked 11.580u | +2.748u Profit
Week 02 Results 21 Bets | 08W-12L-01P | Staked 05.972u | -1.096u Loss..
Week 01 Results 15 Bets | 04W-10L-01P | Staked 05.618u | -2.724u Loss..
Regular Season 2019-2020 Results
159 Bets | 70W-71L-19P | 45.308 Staked | +0.913u Profit | +2.01% ROI
On to next week!