Hello, and welcome to another post.

I was going through my twitter feed this evening and I saw some very obscene posts by some "crypto influencers". These people were saying that Bitcoin would reach $100000 by the end of the year, and that XRP would reach $200 sometime after that. Someone also said that BAT would reach $5 by the end of this year.

In this post, I'd like to debunk those claims and make you see how price actually increases, as well as why a single Ripple costing $200 is obscene and is possibly blasphemy. Also, you'll see why I feel that BAT stands no chance of reaching $5 this year, but might next year. Let's get started.

Ok. So it all boils down to market cap. And this is where many people miss it big time.

Market cap is defined as the product if the CMP(Current market price) and the total supply of the commodity in question.

So, for bitcoin, with an approximate circulating supply of just above 18 million, and a price of approximately 9500, we have 18 million × 9500 which gives us a market cap of approximately 117 billion dollars. 

Assume we are all calling for Bitcoin at $18000. What this means is that, supposing Bitcoin is trading at 9000(to make the calculations easier), for Bitcoin to double in price we must also double the market cap. Therefore, either the number of tokens increases(which is impossible), or the price increases.

However, market cap is a form of hinderance to how far price can move. Because there will forever be a limited amount of a particular asset, it follows that it's price will stop moving at a particular time, once the supply has overpowered demand, and keeps price in a steady state. That's why Bitcoin no longer 10xes in one day.

So while I'm not saying that Bitcoin won't reach $100000 someday, expecting it this year is purely a pipe dream. Don't bother.

I also saw a tweet saying that BAT would reach $5 this year. While I learnt from my last post that BAT is in fact limited in number(thank you all for commenting, I will answer every single one), it hasn't reached $0.5 yet, not to talk about $1. My target for BAT this year is $0.7, and if that reaches, the market cap would soar to higher levels. I equally feel that BAT would reach $5 sometime in the nearer future, definitely this decade. But not this year. Not even by a long shot.

XRP on the other hand is a special case. I noticed that there is something called the "XRP army", and they believe that they'll be one rich by buying XRP at its current prices and selling it when it "eventually" reaches $200.

Well, XRP will NEVER reach $200. Because then, its market cap will be larger than that of Google, Apple, Microsoft, Nestlé and Guinness PUT TOGETHER.

It follows that the same rules of supply and demand follow. Tokenomics also have a role to play in XRP's never reaching those levels.

Because XRP isn't a token with much "value", as not many banks hold XRP(or use it actively), its sole purpose for creation is defeated.

Equally, XRP is all about the low fees. If XRP someday reaches $200 (which, to reiterate,but never will), the whole essence of low fees would be shot in the foot. And with the XRP creator selling off his tokens whenever the price looks nice, it would be a blessing if XRP manages to reach $1.

You might think I hate the token. But I don't. I'm just being realistic. Trade what the chart gives you, not what you would like to see.

Thanks for reading.