Football Betting picks by the numbers

Football Betting picks by the numbers

A journal of my betting journey to Football. I firmly believe that watching all the games is of paramount importance even today but sometimes it is just not enough. Numbers and statistics are here to give us extra insight. I will be commenting on models used too, and not just the numbers. Main focus is Premier League but also some other leagues will appear sporadically.


Ligue 1 and Napoli for today!

3 Mar 2023 1 minute read 0 comments Nepenthe

Nice is expected to have an easy game against Auxerre according to their respective xGoals especially given how weak Auxerre is at away games. Napoli keeps bashing everyone and the next victim will be Lazio today in their unstoppable run for the Scud...

Premier League 4/2/2023

4 Feb 2023 1 minute read 0 comments Nepenthe

At last we are back after a super busy and exciting January transfer window. So without further ado lets see today's games.   Brentford faces a very troubled Southampton side which despite having done some great transfers, I am not certain if they ca...

Premier League 4/1/2023

4 Jan 2023 1 minute read 0 comments Nepenthe

Picking it up from where we left it last gameweek, whoever watched the Newcastle game knows that we deserved way more than the 2/4, but such is the nature of the game. Onwards to today:   Southampton is one of those teams that every year they play an...

English Football New year's Eve

31 Dec 2022 1 minute read 0 comments Nepenthe

Hello peeps, just a few more selections today after our previous 2/3 but positive returns day on boxing day: Fulham has Mitrovic one of the most prolific scorers in the league, while Southampton seems to be struggling a lot this season. I do expect S...

Premier League Boxing Day

26 Dec 2022 1 minute read 0 comments Nepenthe

Premier League is at last back and now we can resume the betting: 3 picks for today based on the numbers and the home/away performances Everton - Wolves :  Wolves is abyssmal away, while Everton seems to have recuperated from a bad start so I will ba...

Championship 19/12/2022

19 Dec 2022 1 minute read 0 comments Nepenthe

At long last the world cup is at an end so we can start again with our normal routine. A short warmup for today from the English Championship as Wigan Athletic hosts Sheffield United in tonight's action. Betting on the away win seems like the no brai...

Champions League 14/09/2022

14 Sep 2022 1 minute read 0 comments Nepenthe

An easy day today, as it is early in the group stage so the favourites will win. Man City to Win @ 1.20 at Bet365 PSG to Win @ 1.18 at Bet365 Real Madrid to Win @ 1.57 at Bet365

Premier League 04/09/2022

4 Sep 2022 1 minute read 0 comments Nepenthe

Arsenal has been dominant in the beginning of the season but Manchester  United seems to be on the rise. In this clash numbers side with the invincibles. Brighton has been super stable this season while Leicester seems to be away from their past self...

Champions League Qualifications 23/8/2022

23 Aug 2022 1 minute read 0 comments Nepenthe

Victoria Plzen is the better side despite one of their started defenders missing. Given how the first game was a boring 0-0 draw I expect a home win. Red Star Belgrade is only trailing one goal and plays at home, but Maccabi Haifa has proven that the...

Premier League and Serie A 22/8/2022

22 Aug 2022 1 minute read 0 comments Nepenthe

Liverpool has not started very well this season but Manchester United is going through one of the biggest crises that I remember. Liverpool has overwhelming quality in all lines and will be the undeniable pick in this matchup The Special One will alw...