Prediction Frontier breaks down prediction markets; from first principles to frontier developments. Through research, explainers, and analysis, we help readers understand how information, probability, and capital converge to shape modern markets.
28 Aug 2026 2 minute read 1 comment Edwin Munyui
It’s been four weeks since the last Prediction Frontier Weekly. We spent most of that time in the trenches, refining what we’re building and digging into the question that followed the World Cup: what comes next? Sports are still driving much of the...
3 Aug 2026 5 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui
Prediction markets defended the correct FOMC outcome, generated more quarterly revenue for Robinhood than equities or crypto, and moved deeper into corporate hedging. The signal is working. The next test is whether the category can create durable fin...
18 Jul 2026 3 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui
Prediction markets have spent much of the World Cup breaking trading-volume records. This week offered the first indication of what happens when the tournament begins to wind down. Polymarket’s World Cup Winner market generated $165.6 million in seve...
10 Jul 2026 4 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui
Prediction markets have spent much of the World Cup proving that they can attract retail trading volume. This week offered a more consequential development: can the same markets become a tool for hedging financial risk at the institutional level? Su...
3 Jul 2026 6 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui
Prediction markets closed out June with the biggest month in the sector's history. Combined trading volume across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US reached $44.8 billion, up 75% from May's $25.66 billion, according to The Block, with the FIFA Wor...
26 Jun 2026 4 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui
Prediction Markets have continued to break records in trading volume since the debut of the FIFA World Cup 2026. According to DeFi Rate, the past week recorded a total notional volume of $13.1 billion; Kalshi accounted for $9B (69%) while Polymarket...
28 Apr 2026 15 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui
Prediction markets have moved from the regulatory fringe to the center of a multi-front legal crisis. In the United States, the fundamental jurisdictional question, whether event contracts are federally regulated derivatives or state-regulated gambli...
16 Apr 2026 2 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui
Prediction markets reported their strongest week, with Kalshi hitting a notional volume of $3.54 billion while Polymarket recorded $2.48 billion; the industry’s combined notional volume crossed $6.5 billion, setting a new overall high, according to D...
9 Apr 2026 9 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui
A Q1 2026 Sector Report Key Highlights $1.72B raised in Q1 2026, making prediction markets the second most funded crypto sector this quarter – with Kalshi targeting a $22B valuation and Polymarket eyeing $20B $164.76B in total notional volume and 3....
