Prediction Frontier breaks down prediction markets; from first principles to frontier developments. Through research, explainers, and analysis, we help readers understand how information, probability, and capital converge to shape modern markets.
2 Oct 2026 1 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui $0.10
Prediction markets closed September with $78.2 billion in notional volume, marking the largest month ever compared to July’s record which sat at $56.4 billion. We’re putting together our Q3 report, and this week’s letter draws on three fundamental c...
25 Sep 2026 2 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui $0.05
This week’s Prediction Frontier letter turns to sports. They accounted for $299.3 million, more than half of Polymarket’s on-chain trading, from September 14–20. Esports added another $77.4 million. That much trading needs someone willing to take the...
21 Sep 2026 2 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui $0.07
The past week has been quite interesting for the prediction market sector, with discussion around Novig’s “Just Sports” campaign featuring Sydney Sweeney taking centre stage. Did it hit the sweet spot? On visibility, the answer appears to be yes. On...
11 Sep 2026 3 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui $0.04
Prediction markets are building distribution faster than they are building standards for how their odds should be presented. A 70 per cent probability can look self-explanatory, but the number alone does not tell the audience the exact contract wordi...
28 Aug 2026 2 minute read 1 comment Edwin Munyui $0.11
It’s been four weeks since the last Prediction Frontier Weekly. We spent most of that time in the trenches, refining what we’re building and digging into the question that followed the World Cup: what comes next? Sports are still driving much of the...
3 Aug 2026 5 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui $0.05
Prediction markets defended the correct FOMC outcome, generated more quarterly revenue for Robinhood than equities or crypto, and moved deeper into corporate hedging. The signal is working. The next test is whether the category can create durable fin...
18 Jul 2026 3 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui $0.03
Prediction markets have spent much of the World Cup breaking trading-volume records. This week offered the first indication of what happens when the tournament begins to wind down. Polymarket’s World Cup Winner market generated $165.6 million in seve...
10 Jul 2026 4 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui $0.01
Prediction markets have spent much of the World Cup proving that they can attract retail trading volume. This week offered a more consequential development: can the same markets become a tool for hedging financial risk at the institutional level? Su...
3 Jul 2026 6 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui $0.14
Prediction markets closed out June with the biggest month in the sector's history. Combined trading volume across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US reached $44.8 billion, up 75% from May's $25.66 billion, according to The Block, with the FIFA Wor...
26 Jun 2026 4 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui $0.01
Prediction Markets have continued to break records in trading volume since the debut of the FIFA World Cup 2026. According to DeFi Rate, the past week recorded a total notional volume of $13.1 billion; Kalshi accounted for $9B (69%) while Polymarket...
