Peter Zeihan published a book in 2022 saying, “The US is withdrawing from the global system and there will be a collapse in globalization, the world as we know it is collapsing.” We are not in a world where the rudder is broken according to the idea of ​​a simple Republican president and then a Democratic president comes and this situation is fixed. When we look at the ranking of countries where the US has an annual deficit between 2018 and 2023, while the trade deficit with China narrowed, there was no narrowing in the total headline trade deficit. Countries such as Vietnam and Mexico stood out. This is a very important point.

Trump or the US realized this: As a result of the measures taken during his 2016 presidency, China only changed its origin. It moved its factories and continued to enter the US market. And not only did it continue to enter, it also started to create its own economic bloc by moving its factories to Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Mexico. The more you invest in those regions, the more your say will actually start to be heard. This is an inevitable rule. So Trump realized this: A customs duty directed only at China was not effective, and also played into China. This is the primary reason for the new taxes.

The tone may have changed during the Biden era, but we saw a very tough Biden on customs duties, sanctions and chips. In other words, the state policy continued. Therefore, I think that the idea that a democratic president will come from now on, let's stay calm, and when a democratic president comes, we will clarify our investment decisions will not work. In my opinion, the most clearly overlooked issue was the decision made by OPEC. During the Biden era, inflation was 7%, OPEC, who could not be convinced when told to produce more oil, made the decision. OPEC's loyalty was tested and OPEC passed the test. With this step taken, there were actually 2 energy sources in the world. The USA and Russia. From now on, every country will buy oil or energy from whichever stop they feel close to. This is a very important development, please let's not forget.

With this decision that the USA made OPEC take, it is trying to keep inflation under control and put pressure on Russia over the Russia-Ukraine war. I think oil prices will be suppressed for a long time. The FED will most likely cut interest rates 4 times this year in the upcoming period. Trump will also make tax cuts domestically.

The important point is that if you are changing the way and procedure of trade in the world, then the monetary system will probably change. That is actually what is happening right now. The US is saying something very simple. If you are going to trade using my market, you apply my rules. Gold is important from this perspective rather than inflation. The US looks at the issue as follows: The $ system is already in its own hands. What could be an alternative? It could be gold. The US wants to take control of the gold side as well. Bitcoin has also become an environment that the US can seriously take control of, first through ETFs and then through strategic reserves.

We are likely to get good news quickly. Vietnam said let's talk on April 4. Trump is also trying to create a rift between Vietnam and China. One of the reasons why the US honors South America with 10% is to say, if you don't want to come to the US, come to South America in my backyard.

I think the stock market has just realized or will realize that this issue is not just an economic issue, but a much more planned and ongoing issue. Maybe there will be a reaction on Monday. Especially when you start to unravel the structure that has formed around China in Asia, when China cannot sell to the US through any channel, there will be very serious pressure inside. If China's access to the world is closed, then the producers who will turn to the country will trigger very big bankruptcies. Therefore, it will be necessary to focus on the Bank of China as much as the FED. Just as Russian companies suddenly became very worthless in the West, the US will do the same to China. I think the US will eventually buy Greenland.