$42000 and $30000 are not the true bottom line of BTC
When BTC floated at US$42,000 on May 18, many people believed that BTC had reached a low point, and that it was time to buy the bottom of BTC. On May 19, the BTC price dropped sharply within the day, and the lowest point has reached $30,000, which shows that the market panic is still spreading. The last two rounds of BTC price declines can be understood as Musk's responsibility, and his few words brought down the entire BTC market. Then the price of BTC this time has a lot to do with China’s policy on BTC. China’s policy on BTC continues to be tightened, and 30,000 USD can be understood as the bottom of BTC’s policy. Of course, this bottom is not. Not necessarily the true bottom of BTC.
Some people say that BTC is a decentralized currency system that is not subject to any country's policy intervention, let alone being manipulated by individuals and capital giants. However, the three BTC price drops illustrate many problems. It is difficult for BTC to get rid of its dependence on policy and capital, and the decentralized monetary system carries huge risks. Of course, it is indeed difficult for a country to completely eliminate BTC, but it is still possible to prohibit the use of BTC within the country. After all, there are only a few people who really dare to oppose the country.
BTC's picker ends early, which may disrupt the layout of capital giants
The three major organizations of China Internet Finance Association, China Banking Association, and China Payment and Settlement Association jointly issued a statement, reminding the risk of BTC hype and reviewing regulatory measures, which means that China's policy on BTC and other cryptocurrencies has been tightened again. The core content of the policy is that financial institutions and payment institutions must not engage in BTC and other cryptocurrency-related services in China, which basically amounts to a complete blockade of BTC. The impact of policies on BTC's price trend is significant, which also verifies that policy changes are one of BTC's biggest risks.
Although the Chinese market is lost, BTC can still be traded normally in other countries that support BTC, but the loss of the Chinese market has a great impact on BTC. If China's policy on BTC is tightened, the number and scale of Chinese speculation about BTC will be significantly reduced, and some of them will even sell BTC in their hands. Policy changes have triggered panic in the market. This is how BTC's "policy bottom" is generated, and of course there may be new bottoms in the future. In fact, BTC's policy is not terrible. What is terrible is the chain effect caused by the policy, which makes BTC appear systemic risks.
It is the same as before. BTC itself does not generate value. Its value mainly comes from someone taking the order in the future. A large part of the reason why capital giants hype BTC is because they believe that someone will take over after opening a low position. In the past, there were a lot of users in China who hyped BTC and other cryptocurrencies. It is never a false proposition that people are stupid and have more money. Therefore, Chinese users are also their potential takers. But now that China completely bans BTC, it will cut off the thinking of foreign capital, which will disrupt their plans.
The end of the policy may trigger retail investors to cut meat, and BTC will have a cut of meat in the future
Although there are still many novices who can harvest, if BTC loses the Chinese market, it may force capital to close the net ahead of time. Some people may say that China has also introduced policies before, prohibiting financial institutions and payment institutions from providing services for BTC, but the problem can still be solved through external networks (the Chinese mainland cannot access websites outside of China). The case of the US investigation on Binance this month has given me a hint that I do not rule out taking action on the external BTC trading platform.
Although the United States is one of the biggest supporters of BTC, it requires that all platforms engaged in cryptocurrency transactions must obtain authorization from the U.S. regulatory authorities. The main reason why the United States investigates Binance is to suspect that Binance is unauthorized to provide cryptocurrency transaction services to U.S. citizens. In fact, it is not only the United States that is doing this, but countries such as South Korea and Iran are also intensively introducing relevant policies. There is a high probability that China will also pay attention to this issue. In the future, it is not ruled out that these external network platforms will be held accountable. These external network platforms should converge a lot in the future due to pressure.
The review of China's policy on BTC and other cryptocurrencies this time has triggered a crash in BTC and a new policy bottom has emerged. If someone wants to buy the bottom right now, there is a high chance that they will be halfway up the mountain, and $30,000 may not be the true bottom of BTC.
You want to copy their secrets, they want to copy your home!
Although BTC has the characteristics of hype, the possibility of continuing to rise is not ruled out in the future, but it is not in the present. Now BTC has been selling at a high level. It is not that someone in the market just needs to buy BTC, but someone just needs to sell BTC. Therefore, when capital wants to increase BTC, it is also waiting for these people to "cut meat", then BTC will have "cut meat low". When the market cuts the bottom of the flesh, if capital is still willing to hype BTC, then it is time for BTC to rise again.
