Hello Crypto Friends!

Quick update on BTC.

With 30 mins to go before this candle closes, we can see it should close above the 200 MA. This is good, for the long term, it does not mean we can't test below it again though. The trend has not changed on the big time frames yet. 

Lets look at the daily-

This candle also closes in 20 mins. We can see that the trend line has broken. Meaning the wedge has broken. The 13 EMA is resistance, we did however test the 21 also with a swift rejection.

I have closed my Long and switched short. My target is the red line. (1597 fib EMA). 

Here is my bullish theory-

We backtest the falling wedge on RSI, testing the previous low on price. Then make a W pattern and divergence on the RSI. Eventually breaking into the wedge on pattern on price with RSI heading back up.

I will be looking to switch back to long around the $4800 area.  For this to be the case i would expect a bullish pattern to appear on the 4 hr.

Something like this...

Now lets look at the more bearish scenario-

We form a falling channel, and come all the way down to test the bottom of the larger channel around $3750.

This could however also give us bullish divergence on the daily. 

Either way i think we are finding a local bottom, and will see a trend change in the near future. just my opinion for now. 

Something interesting to note-

We have only recently gotten a monthly 100 EMA and SMA on the BLX chart. Which is sitting at our previous low at $3150 currently.

Anyway, if your trading, the direction does not matter too much as you can be profitable either way as long as you are trading in the right direction.

Happy Trading!