This blog is devoted to the latest developments in the crypto space which appear to promise to unlock unrecognized value for crypto investors and traders.
13 Dec 2024 1 minute read 0 comments Sebastian Purcell, PhD
Welcome to The Cypher! We distill the market chaos and provide three ideas each week that you can tell your clients, friends and family were your own ;) Idea 1: A Good Month for US Equities The curve for S&P futures is sequentially smooth over it...
11 Dec 2024 1 minute read 0 comments Sebastian Purcell, PhD
$BTC is trading in the range where it's been for roughly 2 weeks. You should wait for a dip, right? Strangely, the data suggest that it is now more of a bargain (at the exact same price) than it was 2 weeks ago. To explain, we're going to use the Spe...
10 Dec 2024 2 minute read 0 comments Sebastian Purcell, PhD
$BTC dipped and alt-coins were nuked yesterday. If you don't think this is the beginning of the end for the bull market, then everything just went 20% off. Let's look at some of these coins showing recent strength. Why recent strength? Because that m...
6 Dec 2024 2 minute read 0 comments Sebastian Purcell, PhD
Our experimental wallet has done better than 2x recently (over the past ~45 days). Just before the recent period, it held ~$5800 and I went heavy on memes + the $VIRTUAL protocol (for a deeper explanation: here’s the link to my Oct 24 piece)....
4 Dec 2024 2 minute read 0 comments Sebastian Purcell, PhD
Meme coins probably aren't dead. But that "bull" is certainly resting at the moment. @MustStopMurad's top meme coin, $SPX (SPX 6900), arguably the most culty of coins, is down almost 23% over the past month. The Gensler Gone narrative, by contrast,...
3 Dec 2024 1 minute read 0 comments Sebastian Purcell, PhD
Retail investors are largely still on the sidelines. So, is now a good time to deploy some capital? Here's what a key data point suggests. The $BTC 25 Delta Skew is a contrarian indicator. Whenever it drops below -10%, there is a high probability of...
27 Nov 2024 1 minute read 0 comments Sebastian Purcell, PhD
Are we entering a new crab-walk era? The Trump presidency is in. More interest rate cuts are probably coming, but not in the size many initially expected. The FOMC's next meeting will end on December 18th. That's when we'll hear news about whether QT...
22 Nov 2024 3 minute read 0 comments Sebastian Purcell, PhD
It seems inevitable that BTC will reach $100,000 per coin soon. Polymarket pegs the probability at 60% before this year ends (up from below 25% before Trump’s victory). The massive gains to be had in the digital asset space are thus likely to be els...
21 Nov 2024 1 minute read 1 comment Sebastian Purcell, PhD
$BTC just logged another intra-day high at over $98,000. Is the market overheated yet? We have two bits of evidence that suggest "not yet" -- Qualitative and Quantitative Qualitative Evidence In a real market top, people stop asking about overvaluati...
15 Nov 2024 3 minute read 6 comments Sebastian Purcell, PhD
Bitcoin is at an all-time high and Ethereum is making a comeback. Trump isn’t even in office yet (and won’t be for months). Is it all the Trump narrative’s doing? Yes and no. That’s because the Trump Narrative isn’t one story; it’s three. Trump’s ele...
