Good morning

It is always nice to see that the market behaves as expected : we did get the explosive move to the upside. The sentiment shifted completely in a short amount of time, most traders are now expecting that we rally straight to new highs.  While I also expect new highs in the future, I do think that we'll see a nice correction after completion of the diagonal for (i) of c. The correction will then be (ii) of c. After this correction we can become bullish again and go into price discovery.

Let me start with the big picture, a nice green candle was printed as anticipated :

How high will this diagonal go? Well I posted it on X earlier this week, overthrow over the diagonal trendline is not guaranteed, but it is common to see it. I do think this wave has to stay shorter then the first diagonal for A though (for degree reasons), so that would mean the max target is ~2,15 on the exchange neutral chart, could shoot higher on exchanges though. Please ignore those moves in your wave counts.

Let us look at the recent price action for some extra clues :

You see how tiny that initial diagonal is in the first wave position and how powerful it was? Leading diagonals are bullish!

Melt ups are kinda hard to count but I think wave 3 looks good. A long sideways triangle for wave four backtested the base channel and now in wave 5 - or has it already completed? Hard to say, but there are signs of weakness as we are unable to reach the original channel, and the big pull back also indicates that there is a shift - but one possibility I see that could give us a bit more upside is that we are in an ending diagonal that will complete the fifth wave for (i) of c.

If that happens we can expect it will be followed by a sharp decline that will retrace the entire diagonal in a short amount of time. The question how much correction will we get and how long will it take? I honestly don't know.

The diagonal took over 740 days to play out, so it is certainly possible we will correct for a couple of weeks. Then again, when momentum is bullish in crypto it is most of the time very impatient so it might just be a quick shake-out move, maybe back to where the previous fourth wave ended, around 1 dollar?

That is all for now, needless to say I keep monitoring the price action and will update if required, also follow me on X for additional updates.

Good luck