Good morning,
In my previous update I wrote that the diagonal needed to overlap of wave i - and that is what happened last Friday. I also wrote that we needed to stay above the 0:2 trendline, and this was not the case. This has certain consequences to the count, it means that an impulse is NO longer an option imho. Always stick to the rules and count what you see and NOT what you hope for. So I have to change the count to a zigzag instead of an impulse. That is maybe a bit disappointing, it certainly makes the count more complex and uncertain of future price action. Counting XRP has never been easy and that won't change anytime soon, unfortunately.
I present you the new situation :
Not so much changed, the diagonal that started in early 2023 remains valid and the expectation is that wave v will go higher. However it is no longer counted as a third wave, it has become a (c) wave. And it is harder to say how this zigzag fits in the bigger picture. But I think the current diagonal is leading and the start of a bigger (c) wave, I don't think this diagonal is the entire (c) wave because (a) was a diagonal on it's own. The most & only longterm bullish option is that this diagonal is the start of an even bigger diagonal. We will not find out anytime soon. But lets focus on the shorter time frame, we need to see some serious strength to confirm wave (iv) of the current diagonal has completed.
This brings me to the shorter time frame :
You can see how I counted the final decline as a double zigzag, it was very important that the (b) stayed below (x), and it was followed by a nasty (c) wave. There was blood in the streets 🩸 and when I smell blood I will never panic, but I will take it as a buying opportunity. That said, a third zigzag lower remains possible, but the diagonal should remain valid, this means we cannot travel below the (ii) low, that would invalidate the diagonal and put us in serious trouble. But we have a decent bounce from the low, so I have some hope we saw the bottom and we can make progress from here.
That is all for now, I will keep you informed. Additional updates might be posted on X (formerly Twitter). Yeah, Elon Musk stole my logo, very annoying.
Sincerely Yours,
