Good morning

Not much is new, I think we are still in correction after the diagonal, but I made some changes to the corrective count and I wanted to inform you of this situation. The market refused to give us a new low last week, instead it dropped a bit but then reversed. Here is what I think of this price action :

After the five waves down for (a) of Y we have a 3 waves up for leg a - we then have a very confusing decline that retraced over 90% of a. So it qualifies as a flat wave for b. How to count that three wave structure - it is very difficult - but I think it works as triple zigzag for b, but honestly such a confusing wave can only be counted after the fact, almost impossible to count this live.

From that low we have fives waves up and it appears to have concluded with a small (ending?) diagonal, if it is really an ending diagonal we should retrace to the starting point soon & a lot more?

So nuff said, despite the strength of the last couple of days I don't think the corrective has concluded. I don't think it is a popular idea, but I miss lack of power in this move from the lows, although it is impulsive.

Could I be wrong? Of course, this is a brave call since it appears we have an impulsive from the lows. Is a truncation not possible? Well it would be a double truncation, because we did not break below (W) but also not below (a) of Y.  Or is the whole structure a triangle? In the big picture a triangle does not make sense, I think you will also have problems connecting b & d. So yeah, while I could be wrong I count as best as I possibly can, and that is the idea I want to present you today.

I am prepared for another drop, but I have no interest to short the market or to buy the dip, just enjoying the show and see if my idea will play out.

Let me end with the big picture, I am still waiting for a retrace back into the diagonal, nobody can really tell me if this is required, but the additional downside that I expect would certainly do the trick :

That is all for now, I wish you a nice weekend and I hope all your wishes for 2025 will come true (better late then never)

Best wishes,