One of my usual arguments for why it’s worth putting some money into Bitcoin/crypto (not investment advice!) is to “Zoom Out.”

Everyone focuses on the day to day volatility, but there’s a reason that price charts have 1 day, 3 day…..All-Time graphs. The important thing is to “Zoom Out.”

I remember hearing Fred Wilson speak at the 2016 Coin Center dinner, which was my first crypto event, and his keynote was about how he liked assets that, over time, moved up and to the right. Bitcoin fit the bill for him.

I bring this up because I recently finished reading Messari’s Crypto Theses for 2022, all 165 pages of it. It’s magnificent and I could (and might) write a blog post on each of the 165 pages. [that’s an idea].

But one of the things that kept emerging were the two ideas that

• it’s a multi-chain future
• the Layer 1 battles are over and the big players have been decided

Now, it’s a matter of opinion here, and admittedly I have some skin in the game, but I could not help but wonder if there’s a desire among analysts and pundits, even the smartest of them, to “make a call” before things are settled.

After all, that’s what people pay them for (which begs the question of the tail wagging the dog).

So, while there’s no doubt that the chart of crypto adoption and utilization is “up and to the right,” if we zoom out, it’s a tiny amount of the world’s population.

In other words, we are still, so early.

I get the argument for the two conclusions and can easily make them myself, but there’s a part of me that will always remember that Google was the 16th search engine.