In a recent debate with political scientist Michael Beckley, the question of whether China's power has peaked was discussed. Beckley argued that China's rise is over, and the United States will remain the sole superpower. This claim has been made before, but both sides have strong arguments.

On the side of China's decline, it is argued that China's economic slowdown is structural, with labor costs rising and growth becoming less productive. China's debt bubble and overbuilt infrastructure are also concerning. China's closed political system and interventions in the tech sector hinder innovation, and its demographic trajectory is negative. China also faces an increasingly hostile external environment and is ruled by an erratic dictator.

On the other hand, it is argued that China's economy is still growing faster than the US, albeit slower. China's integration into global value chains and lower labor costs contribute to its continued growth. While there are challenges, China invests in advanced technologies and has achieved parity or surpassed the US in many fields. Demographics are a challenge, but there are potential solutions, such as increasing the retirement age and improving the educational system. China's global soft power projection is also on the rise.

In conclusion, while China faces significant challenges, it still has substantial upside. Another decade of robust economic growth and increased international influence is likely. A "Chinese century" may not be sure, but China still has room to grow.

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