BTC is dragging the entire crypto market down. But there's more behind this correction than just selling pressure.
Here's how I see it 👇
1/ Too many longs?
Funding rates are still positive on Bitcoin, meaning longs are paying shorts. This suggests bullish positioning remains crowded, leaving the market vulnerable to further liquidations.
2/ A positioning reset?
If funding turns negative, it could signal that shorts are taking control and excessive bullish positioning is being flushed out. Not necessarily a bottom, but a shift worth watching.
3/ The 4-year cycle.
Bear-market phases have historically brought painful corrections, exchange failures and project collapses. MtGox (2014), FTX(2022) & Binance now remain a major example of how quickly confidence can disappear.
4/ Macro pressure.
Geopolitical tensions, a strong dollar, persistent inflation and high interest rates continue to weigh on risk assets.
5/ Sentiment can turn quickly.
Previous recoveries often started when confidence was still low and many investors were expecting further downside.
My take:
I'm not calling the bottom. I'm watching funding, liquidity and market sentiment.
The next recovery could begin before most people are ready for it.
Stay patient and don't let fear drive your decisions.
https://x.com/Adaminssane/status/2119776739886825566
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