Low volume, low volatility, no price action during the last days...
For some all of these factors may be a signal of weakness and so a painful bearish move is yet to come.
However, I believe that the opposite will come more likely.
Why?
Well, there are two nice charts I am observing lately in the glassnode studio site:
The amount of BITCOIN staked on exchanges is Decreasing fastly
The percent of circulating supply that has not moved in at least 1 year is continuously increasing
Both charts indicates that the majority of BITCOIN hodlers are not willing to sell their investment at the current level of prices.
On the first chart there is a clear signal that despite exchanges keep offering new products day after day as options trading, leveraged trading, futures, staking, savings and the like, hodlers prefer to stay away from any transaction that would put their BITCOINS under risk, either playing on any of those products as well as keeping their investment in cold storage where they can control their private keys in a more safely manner.
This is a clear signal of Scarcity creation on the markets which if combining with the one provided as a result of the halving it may result on an explosive uprise which will put the whole market in a higher order of magnitude.
Or, as it is shown in the amazing stock-to-flow, at the level of the 100000USD per BTC:
The Stock to Flow (S/F) Ratio is a popular model that assumes that scarcity drives value. Stock to Flow is defined as the ratio of the current stock of a commodity (i.e. circulating Bitcoin supply) and the flow of new production (i.e. newly mined bitcoins). Bitcoin's price has historically followed the S/F Ratio and therefore it is a model that can be used to predict future Bitcoin valuations. (source).
I have the feeling that we may see another timid dip in the coming days but if scarcity is what drives value, I don't see better conditions than now to resume the uptrend shortly.
I feel in my guts that on this second half of the year and during the next, we are going to see the Moon from a closer site.
*Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.
