I don't do all that much technical analysis. I'm mostly a fan of fundamental analysis, though there is an association between the two and technical analysis can be useful when trading, or even determining whether it's time to buy or sell a specific token. I don't trade so much, but I will focus my spending on tokens that look like they're at a local peak, and save tokens that look like they have significant room for growth.
In the case of BELA, there's been a lot of concern about price. I mentioned this in my first article about BelaCam and BELA. It's true that BELA has lost a lot of purchasing power from its peak, and it appears that BELA has been on a nearly constant state of decline for a long time. But honestly, if one were to look at a log scale chart and compare to BTC, things look a little bit different. The following charts were created using CoinMarketCap.
Linear Analysis
So things look worst when looking at a linear scale chart. BELA rose to more than $0.50 near the beginning of January. It's now under one cent. There's definitely a lot of volatility in BELA. More exchanges will help, but really to ensure more stable BELA, the community will need to grow. BelaCam itself will need more users producing quality content.
Log Analysis
But even with the recent drop from all time highs, things look a lot better when analyzing things on a log scale. Log scales are really useful for getting rid of volatility and looking at longer term trends.
Here's the same chart, but in a log scale. Things look a lot different, don't they? Yes, there's been a decline since January 2018, but it's not nearly as significant as it appeared in the linear scale chart. Moreover, it's easier to see that we seem to be hitting support around $0.01, which was recently hit a bit after January and again around January 2019. So long as support holds, I wouldn't be surprised to see a significant move higher, over the next 12 - 24 months. I wouldn't even be surprised to see new all time highs.
One final chart. Rather than comparing BELA to the USD, let's see how things look compared to BTC, the "gold" of the cryptoasset world.
Very similar. Indeed, the support line becomes even more pronounced. Indeed, the three recent attempts at 0.000001 BTC look somewhat like a wedge pattern. So long as support holds, there's a good chance for a move higher against BTC. If support falters, we definitely could see a move lower, but that's one reason why if someone is holding BELA and wants prices to stabilize, they should be working to get more people involved with BelaCam.
Final Thoughts
I'm not a day trader or anything of the sort. I'm also not a professional financial analyst, so remember that these are only my thoughts. If BELA goes up, great. If it goes down. Okay. Don't hold me accountable for any losses you might incur. That being said, in my own personal view, I do think BELA has a good chance of going back towards $0.50, though I don't think long term it will move all that much higher. If BELA moves too high, people won't want to use it to tip anyone on the platform, and use will drop. If use drops, the value of BELA will drop with it. But $0.50 is a reasonable target. At $0.50, which is around its all time high, a user can still give a tip to a post without it feeling like over tipping.
Of course, things could be a little different if its trend is tied to BTC, rather than the USD, and people start thinking in bitcoins rather than dollars. At BELA's all time high against bitcoin, 10,000 BELA equaled 1 BTC. If BTC moves back to ATH and BELA can match—honestly I don't think is going to be the case—then BELA would move has high as $2. It certainly would be interesting to see that happen.
