In any sport there are teams that are at the top (favorites) and there are teams that are at the bottom (underdogs) of the success pyramid.
If we bet on favorites, we frequently will be right, but because many people will be placing the same bets, odds will be low. As a result, such bets will not be profitable.
If we bet on underdogs, odds will be high, but a frequency of correct bets will be low. As a result, such bets also will not be profitable.
The idea is to bet a fixed amount on a team that is underdog in a view of majority, but will surprise many and shows a better result than it was in the past. Such strategy is called a fixed size betting. It is a low risk strategy that give some profit if the team will be chosen right. A fixed strategy is a strategy to bet on a particular fixed event, for example that a home (or away) team win, for all games in a pre-selected group of games.
Let us consider an example.
Brooklyn Nets team was on the last (5th ) place in 2009-2010 season in the Atlantic NBA division , and on the 4th place in 2010-2011 season. Majority of bettors had come to a conclusion that Brooklyn Nets is a week team and this moved odds up for games where Brooklyn Nets was the away team. This created a profitable opportunity for the fixed strategy to bet a fixed amount on Brooklyn Nets in all games, where Brooklyn Nets was the away team in 2011-2012 season.
If we look into the table with games where Brooklyn Nets was the away team, we can see that betting on this away team in 2011-2012 season would give us over +57% return on all bets.
This strategy was profitable in four consecutive seasons from 2011-12 to 2014-15.
If you want to increase your profit you should use the optimal strategies (see [1]).
In the next post we considered simple super food lists.
References
[1] Simple optimal betting, trading, investment strategies
