It am going to be as bold as to say that Donald Trump, more than any other individual in US History, has engineered the end of American empire and yet a lot of Americans, and especially those of the MAGA variety have no idea that it's happening.

As a consequence of Trump's blatantly offensive approach to international relations (cuddling up to dictators while f**king the US's friends over) the US no longer has allies. 60 years of consensual relationship with some of the world (Canada, Europe, some Gulf states) has been shredded in full view of the entire planet. All that remains is Israel. Trump has ensured MAGA means Make America the Worst version of itself. The ‘special relationship’ with the UK is now a total shambles; it was always one-sided, but now it is much worse. At least, if anything, Trump has been more honest in how the US views the UK - and saying that is not a compliment.

Review what has happened and it’s clear that Trump is reinventing America as a mafia state, with only a performative theatre of democracy unable to exert any meaningful power. Trump is inspired by, if not an actual agent of Putin, or more sinisterly - as I believe - Putin has something on Trump (a secret recording of an extremely damaging nature or something of that ilk). The tacit agreement is that Trump can be capo di capi of the US and those parts of the wider Americas and Pacific it can dominate, while Putin is capo di capi of the Russian Federation and any parts of Europe it can dominate. Both agree not to interfere in the others sphere of influence, while somehow containing the mutual threat of China.

This isn’t my ‘theory’. It is simply a matter of observable fact, yet most Americans are so embedded in the self belief of the USA, its constitution, its separation of powers, that they haven’t noticed the salami slicing, and frog boiling that now make this irreversible. Trump has taken those ideas that America extols (and which also makes the US believe in its own "Exceptionalism") and wiped his arse with them,

Besides, most Americans lack the direct historic experience of how empires rise and fall: a natural lifespan. I am British, Europe is a graveyard of past world powers. It seems America is now, like Russia, in the final stages of decay, hubris, corruption, authoritarian leadership, and denial. This was first described in the mid 1700’s as the Tytler Cycle of civilisations, by many others since - including C20th historian Sir John Glubb. It’s not a rigidly prescriptive framework, but a sketch of lifespan progression - just as individual human lives vary yet have much in common. Interestingly enough, and as Xi pointed out to an ignorant Trump America has fallen into what is often referred to as a Thucydides Trap. An ebbing power becomes more aggressive (Venezula, Iran, Cuba for starters and even the US relationship with NATO) in a vain attempt to scream "Remember me, I'm still powerful..."

Trump, like Putin, is now overextended and committed to the final stage of failure and chaos. It is very hard to imagine any get out of jail scenario. It’s darkly hilarious that both have convinced themselves that making their respective empires great again has caused them to make desperate fatal errors. Hubris, ignorance, malice is as fatal a disease as terminal cancer.

Trump has handed Iran the Weapons of Mass Economic Destruction of US empire: the Strait of Hormuz (and the Houthi controlled Straits of Bab Al-Mandab). Iran and BRICS now have the weapon to destroy the Petrodollar at will. $38Tn of US debt is going to become even more expensive than the current $1Tn/year bond yields. Countries which have previously bought US debt are going to unload it. Some of speculated as to how disastrous it would be if China alone were to do this. The Fed will be obliged to buy all debt back, with dollars from taxation, or debasing the currency with inflationary quantitive easing (i.e. using tax revenue to provide inflationary relief in a cost of living crisis), or both. Future debt auctions will fail as confidence erodes. The US will enter a cyclone of stagflation.

Trump and the billionaire tech mafia seem to intend to ‘solve’ this by replacing USD with crypto, converting TBills to an impenetrable Ponzi scheme that has no accountability nor oversight by any part of government, media or Americans. While - and you know me - there is an obvious and real value to crypto (otherwise why would I be here) there is much concerning about the associated infra-structure / ecosystem around it. I am saying this as somebody who was burned by Celsius remember?

All of this will culminate with the death of democracy and money itself could become a wholly-owned mafia project. How do you revolt against the blockchain?

Of course this will not work out at all as they hope. I suspect the apocalypse will be global economic and social chaos, rather than nuclear, but mutually assured destruction has many options.

We are at the threshold of a time when it is probably better to learn Mandarin than English.

As always stay safe and well my friends.