COSMOS (also known as ATOM) started so well and gained a lot of traction due to its ambitious vision. It sought to create the "Internet of Blockchains" which boasted of Interoperability via IBC Protocol which resulted in the creation of the Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocol which would allow different blockchains to communicate and transfer assets seamlessly with each other Furthermore, the COSMOS SDK enabled developers to build custom blockchains quickly, which attracted a wave of innovation and new projects that propagated the growth of a strong ecosystem at its core. Projects like Osmosis, Juno (which ultimately failed – see below), and Injective built on COSMOS, boosted its Total Value Locked (TVL) and developer activity, making it a very attractive investment. At that time, around 2020, it defied the broader crypto downturn and thus created an impression of resilience at a time of doubt and uncertainty.

And then it started to fall apart…

Since 2023, COSMOS has fallen hard despite its promising start having dropped over 90% from its peak. Many of its key ecosystem projects such JUNO and Osmosis saw collapses of 79–82%, which inevitably eroded investor confidence and most notably, because of this lack of investor confidence it completely missed out on the 2024–2025 bull run (although in fairness many ALTS did too). This has all resulted in investor apathy and distraction as they have moved on to newer and more innovative chains. Lack of a unified direction has weakened the ecosystem’s cohesion alongside governance disputes; both of which have contributed to the project’s internal fragmentation.

While I prefer to work in GBP, I have to present the prices how I found them. So, looking forward to the future, Changelly is predicting COSMOS will hit ~$3.27 by 2026 while experiencing a slight decline in the short term, whereas Benzinga believes it will be worth ~$7.11 by 2030, so long as its ecosystem regains lost momentum. Most optimistically, Cryptopolitan sees it reaching a maximum of ~$4.94 in 2025 and even reaching somewhere in the range of ~$13–16 by 2028 with the relevant tech support. My gut tells me this unrealistic but would need to dive deeper to be sure of my feelings. Finally, Kraken doesn’t believe it will achieve more than ~$4.06 by 2030, this is the most conservative of the estimates and bad news for my investment and maybe for a lot of others too.

There are a number of key factors that could lead to a recovery in the value of COSMOS. Namely, if developers begin to show greater interest and this leads to new projects, especially in DeFi or AI, it may regain relevance as could a more unified and transparent governance model to restore investor trust. And, of course, this goes without saying but if the crypto market on the whole becomes more buoyant (and not just dominated by growth in BitCoin and Ethereum as is the current trend) it may have a bounce back effect across the board including the community buying more COSMOS which will then in turn heavily influence its trajectory.

So, while COSMOS isn’t dead, nor is its price trapped like ALGROAND’s (see a previous article), it is not the interchain king it once aspired to be and its future hinges on whether it can evolve beyond its early innovations and reassert itself in a crowded, fast-moving blockchain landscape.

Many have their doubts – thus its suppressed price.

As for me, I am still sustaining losses on my COSMOS holdings, which I bought at about 50% of their ATH, which theoretically should be achievable but is actually higher than even Cryptopolitan’s most positive prediction of $16. On a positive note, I have just returned to staking them which, if the prices recover to some extent as predicted, will serve as a counter in that I will be acquiring more and thus driving down steadily the target price for investment recovery. Added to the occasional day trading to leverage both growth of COSMOS Holdings and some USDC this will hopefully accelerate the process. In the mean time it is HODL, HODL, HODL…

… and in the meantime, I hope and pray that it doesn’t turn into a ShitCoin!

As always stay safe and well my friends.