Since Trump was elected as the US president, all cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, have been on the rise. Because Trump said before the election that he would follow cryptocurrency-friendly policies. It seems that he will keep his word after he is elected. I had some concerns, though. We see this because he has taken some steps. He said he would fire the US Securities and Exchange Commission President Gensler, who is a big Bitcoin enemy. He also created a new position in the White House called crypto czar. He brought David Sacks there. David Sacks is a venture capitalist I have been following for a long time. He is a very blockchain and Bitcoin-friendly, new technology-friendly person. All of these show that Trump is serious in his intentions. So what exactly is his intention? Okay, it is important to loosen the prohibitive regulations regarding crypto, but there is another issue that excites the markets more. The United States of America is creating a Bitcoin strategic reserve. America currently has a very serious amount of gold. Can it add Bitcoin to this?

Of course, it currently has some Bitcoin. Because there is a lot of Bitcoin coming from raids on criminal organizations or at least organizations that the American State calls them. First of all, many Bitcoin supporters in America argue that this should not be sold. Secondly, could there be new Bitcoin purchases? Now we will look at this issue a little more deeply and I will include different perspectives on what effects this could have on Bitcoin in both the short-medium and long-term. Finally, I will also talk about my own opinion. I will also try to look at what could happen to Bitcoin in the short term, that is, until January 20, when President Trump of the United States takes office.

The idea of ​​the United States holding Bitcoin reserves is not a very new one. This idea was previously put forward by Dennis Porter. Porter founded the non-profit Satoshi Action Fund in 2022 and claimed that Bitcoin reserves would play an important role in the formula for America's economic salvation. However, this seemed like a very distant possibility at the time. There was an administration and the Capital Markets Board that were extremely hostile to Bitcoin, and there were also events such as the FTX collapse in America. But Porter still did not give up the fight, and if America really starts holding Bitcoin reserves in the coming days, it can be said that this will be Porter's victory. Porter, who helped popularize this great idea, says that if an individual needs to own Bitcoin to maintain their purchasing power in the future, the states and the federal government should do the same. Because Porter also claims that the value of the American dollar has always eroded due to too much money printing in America. He is 100% right about this.

Bitcoin, which made a very rapid rally after Trump was elected, is now on hold for a while. The question is whether the American president will really see Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. So what does Trump think about the Bitcoin reserve idea? He first revealed his views on this subject during a speech he gave at a Bitcoin conference held in Nashville and said that he supported the idea. Trump also came to the New York Stock Exchange earlier this month. There, he met with the famous Jim Cramer from CNBCE. Cramer asked him if America actually has a plan to establish a Bitcoin reserve, and Trump said I think so, but he did not say it very definitively. Then he added that we will do great things for crypto. So of course the markets loved this at that time. According to Porter, the main reason behind Trump's move in this direction is politics. Because crypto investment is very intense in the United States, especially among young people, and Trump supported crypto in order not to lose this large voter base because he saw this. Because he saw that Biden and his bureaucrats were not liked by young people, and that young people were subject to comments like these people do not understand us, do not understand the developments in crypto, do not understand technology, and he chose a different path. I can say that no one is Trump's advisor and he is really guiding them correctly.

Of course, there are criticisms of Porter. There are those who think that Porter only wants to fill the pockets of Bitcoin owners, which is natural. Because the American government declaring Bitcoin as a strategic reserve could drag the price of Bitcoin to places we cannot imagine right now. But Porter says that the government has other reserves. For example, there is a gold reserve, which may increase the price of gold. There is an oil reserve, which may increase the price of oil. Bitcoin is no different. Of course, some people can benefit from government policies. But this does not mean that these decisions are wrong for the government or the American government. By the way, there is bipartisan support that the government should establish a Bitcoin reserve. For example, Democratic Representative Ro Khanna from California deeply believes that the US would benefit from a Bitcoin reserve and argues that the US should not sell Bitcoins that it has seized, especially from criminals.

Khana said in a statement to MarketWatch that Bitcoin seized by the US government should definitely not be sold for a certain period of time and should be made part of our reserves. There are also those who are more aggressive than him. For example, Republican Wyoming Representative Senator Cynthia Lummis says that we should not only be satisfied with this, but also the state should continue to buy Bitcoin and collect 1 million Bitcoins within 5 years. This is of course a very ambitious goal. Because remember, if I am not mistaken, around 19 million Bitcoins have been mined right now. We think 3-4 million of these are lost. If America were to go and make a decision to collect 1 million Bitcoins within 5 years, this would seriously increase the price of Bitcoin. Lummis says that my generation has spent federal funds recklessly for years and built a huge debt of $36 trillion with no clear end in sight. This is truly one of America's biggest problems. The way out of this could be a Bitcoin reserve. We must take bold and fundamental steps to solve the debt crisis. We owe it to future generations. We must create a strategic Bitcoin reserve. This gives us the best chance of paying off almost half of our national debt with existing resources within the next 20 years. This will allow America to be a leader in financial innovation in the twentieth century. We will both be more debt-free and take control of the technological side. Why shouldn't we do this, that's the idea.

Keeping a strategic Bitcoin reserve is not only a topic discussed at the federal level. States also say that we can create our own Bitcoin reserves. Last week, the chairman of the Texas House Finance Committee introduced a bill that would establish a Bitcoin reserve for his state. Similar bills have also been on the agenda in Pennsylvania and Ohio. In the meantime, states in America have very serious money in their hands, especially in large states. Of course, their participation in this process is very pleasing for the crypto market. So the question here is; With what money will America buy this Bitcoin? Will it add a new item to the budget for these purchases? How will this work? Lummis has a solution for that issue too. He says that there are very serious gold reserves in the USA, roughly around 8100 tons at the moment, and they are on record at $46 per ounce. So when we look at the accounting, these golds, as you know, the real ounce value of gold is above 2600, they look quite cheap in our records. Let's close this record difference. Let's update the gold price. Let's go and buy Bitcoin with the new source that emerged in the meantime.

Of course, updating that gold value does not mean creating a tangible money. For this, money needs to be taken from the Central Bank again. In fact, critics are attacking Lummis from this perspective. They say that in this case, money will come to the American treasury from the FED again to make a few Bitcoin owners rich, isn't this borrowing? Lummis also says, how can that be possible, after all, the equivalent of this debt is in gold anyway and this is the net profit of our treasury. That's why he says I don't agree with you. This is where the discussions continue to progress. The critics claim that the best way to gain public support for a plan that will do nothing but fill the bags of Bitcoin owners is to show this plan as if it has no cost. They say that's exactly what Lummis is doing. However, there will still be a cost. Because for this, the American government will have to borrow money again.

On the other hand, for those who love bitcoin like me, these developments are not happy. Of course, it is positive in terms of price, just like the Black Rock incident. But we see that bitcoin is increasingly moving away from the purpose it was designed for. As you know, Satoshi Nakomoto's reason for designing bitcoin was exactly the mismanagement of America, excessive money printing, centralization, and the difficulties individuals have in accessing financial instruments. That's why people like me who really love bitcoin are not very happy with this situation. Bitcoin Magazine editor and chief Mark Goodwin said in a statement on X that I will never be able to properly express how deeply this whole show upsets me. I really think so too, but it is certain that it will reflect positively on the price of bitcoin in the short to medium term. I have concerns and worries about the essence of bitcoin. The positive reflection of this on the price is a separate issue, just like the Blackrock etf. But this also takes bitcoin far beyond its design purpose. In my opinion, this actually decreases its value in the long term.

On this subject, the ideas of Catherine Austin Fitts, a former investment banker, also resonate with me, frankly. She wrote a blog post in November and said that the idea of ​​a strategic Bitcoin reserve was only put forward by so-called Bitcoin billionaires to create a wealthy buyer for their assets. They will dump their bitcoins on the state. Bitcoin had the potential to become a powerful decentralized network and community that offered significant benefits and could truly revolutionize money. But it is now falling out of there. He says that Bitcoin has become a financial product that operates only in the pump and dump style. I agree with him 100% on this subject. Porter turns a deaf ear to these criticisms and says that I don't understand, I want a Bitcoin reserve. I have a bit of conflicting feelings on my part. It is certain that America holding a Bitcoin reserve will definitely increase the price of Bitcoin.

On the other hand, the possibility of Bitcoin becoming the currency of the future is decreasing with such developments. Here is the news about Bitcoin becoming a strategic reserve in the United States. So what do we expect in the short term? As you know, Bitcoin had pulled back a little. Now it is recovering again. According to crypto research firm K33, Bitcoin may reach the peak of this cycle in mid-January. As you know, Bitcoin has 4-year peaks after the split and it says it can reach a price between $140,000-150,000. The reason for this is the time intervals between the peaks. Bitcoin reached a record high of $108,309 on December 17. But remember, when the FED chairman said that maybe we won't lower the interest rate that much, it fell very hard. K33 research manager Vetle Lunde says that Bitcoin spends an average of 318 days waiting from the first record level to the last record level in each cycle. When we add those 318 days, Bitcoin reached a peak in March. When we add it to that, it says it will probably reach a new peak on January 17-18.

By the way, as you know, Donald Trump is accepted as the American president on January 20. He officially takes office. It is also interesting that the date coincides with that. Here, the analyst claims that with Trump taking office, a lot of positive news has flowed into the market. These have been priced in. After Trump is elected president, the market will want to see if this news is true and therefore a decline may occur. I always find these speculative, but this prediction seems interesting. That's why I wanted to share it with you. I find it speculative because Bitcoin is a very young asset after all. We have very little data about the past. So maybe it would be better not to trust it too much.

Also, as you know, there is the issue of whether there will be a Christmas Rally in the United States stock markets. Bitcoin investors say, will a Santa Claus rally benefit us? Unfortunately, when we look at the past, there is not much correlation between Santa Claus rallies and the Bitcoin price. That aspect is not very positive, but if we look at what the analyst I mentioned earlier said, we can reach a price between 145,000 and 200,000 around January 17. I hope he is right, that would be great, if he is right, I will take some profit at that time, to be honest. The latest developments in Bitcoin are like this, I think the Trump administration will be beneficial to Bitcoin in every way, at least in terms of price and there may be pullbacks etc. in the coming period, but I think we have entered a positive period for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. I believe that the bureaucratic staff that Trump has formed and the promises that Trump made during the elections and the fact that many voters are crypto investors will keep Trump close and warm to this issue.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.