The eagerly awaited spot bitcoin etfs have not done much for the price of bitcoin so far. Bitcoin, which once rose to 49000 dollars, is now crawling in the 42000 - 42500 range, and this decline of bitcoin has also destroyed many stocks based on bitcoin. There are sharp draws in stocks such as Maraton, CSK, Coinbase. So what's going on? Why did bitcoin etfs cause such damage to the bitcoin price? Is this a temporary situation? Are we experiencing a sell the news situation or are there other issues? I will try to evaluate all of these together with the changes in stocks and funds that have been traded on the stock exchange for a long time, such as GBTC and Mara.

Bitcoin went up to 49000 dollars when the news of ETF approval came. The first false news was pulled back sharply after the day the Capital Markets Board was hacked. When real bitcoin etf approval came, it went up a little again. But he hasn't been able to hold on since then. It is constantly going down and it has hardened, this movement went down to 41500 - 41600 dollars for a while. It is currently trading at 42500, a very harsh move. Of course, everyone was scratching their heads in surprise in the face of this chaos and what happened from the summit to this point. Why is bitcoin sold?

I still think there may be some news selling behind this. But its share has decreased, the real issue is about the GBTC fund. Gray Scale Bitcoin Trust is actually a bitcoin fund and has been around for many years. But it was not an ETF and it could not sell the bitcoins it contained, it was locked. It has now turned into an ETF, and when it turns into an ETF, the bitcoins within it become sellable. There are many investors who have been waiting at a loss in GBTC for a long time. Because, due to GBTC's own strange dynamics, the bitcoins it held were traded at a lower price on the stock exchange. Now, the commission of GBTC, which has been suffering from this pain for a long time and has been paying very high commissions to GBTC, was at the level of 2%. People sell bitcoins here and turn into cash. Maybe they will buy bitcoin again with this cash. But this is a process. Because here the sale happens immediately. But it takes a few days for this money to be transferred to your account.

The table shared by Joe Consorti on Twitter shows the situation. In fact, the size of sales from GBTC in the first two days reached 579 million dollars. In fact, there is a figure higher than the sales here, only Black Rock's purchases reached 497 million dollars. FBTC $422 million, ARKB $105 million, BITB $237 million.

So actually the total purchases here are more than the GBTC sold. In this case, shouldn't bitcoin go up? Another factor comes into play here. Whatever you say about that factor, while it is not possible to invest in bitcoin through the stock market, many people have invested in stocks that contain bitcoin or are related to bitcoin. I am one of them. Like Coinbase, like Marathon, like Microstrategy, like Riot, like CSK. Some of them are miners, some of them hold a large amount of bitcoin.

An account named Vijay Boyapatti says that there is a very serious outflow around here. In the table he presented, very high transactions took place in COIN, MARA, MSTR, RIOT and CLSK. $8 billion is the last day's transaction. There were 4.7 billion dollars of transactions in the previous day. Probably what's happening here is mainly exit. Because these stocks fell. Why are people leaving here these days? If you want to buy Bitcoin, you don't have to stop here anymore. You can go and invest in ETF. Will this trend continue?

It may continue for some time. But when we look at MARA, for example, the number of bitcoins held by MARA is even higher than Black Rock, which is currently the largest Bitcoin ETF. I think there will be a calmness here after a while. But the outflow here also suppresses the price of bitcoin. Because these outflows cause stocks like MARA and Microstrategy to drop sharply. This scares bitcoin investors and some more bitcoin sales occur.

There is an exit from GBTC. There is an outflow from Bitcoin-related stocks. Some of this money definitely goes to bitcoin etfs, but there may be some delays. Because it takes time for the money to be transferred to the account. Also, maybe some people don't invest in bitcoin, I don't know. But there doesn't seem to be a new, fresh, big money inflow into bitcoin. Currently, there is more of such a balancing act. This is actually natural, so I was wondering if there are huge funds waiting on the sidelines to invest in Bitcoin right away. As a matter of fact, there doesn't seem to be a big movement in that direction right now. Will it happen in the future? I think it will happen.

So, despite all this, I still see bitcoin ETFs as more likely to have a positive impact on the price of bitcoin in a certain term. But bitcoin etfs are not good for bitcoin in the long run. I am renewing my claim and I can show you this based on the recent transactions of Black Rock, the largest bitcoin etf.

An account named MartyParty was examining Black Rock's bitcoin transactions and presented very interesting data. He said that on the first day the Black Rock bitcoin etf was opened to the public, he sold half of his bitcoin and switched to cash. Yesterday he took it from the bottom and brought it back. This is a typical whale operation, actually. But the problem is that Black Rock will turn into a very large whale. So, he currently has around $500 million worth of Bitcoin. It is worth something like 11000 bitcoins. This is not a huge figure, but you can see how big a player Black Rock will become here, thanks to the infinite amount of money it has, and this company can sell half of its bitcoins in one day and buy back half the next day. This is again something that excites price movements and shows that bitcoin price movements will increasingly depend on the sharp movements of ETFs. This is again one of the topics I don't like at all and we have one last question.

Some of the sales pressure may be coming from the fact that there are many shares in ftx bitcoin, which also went bankrupt. As you know, after FTX went bankrupt, it went under trustee management in America and they want to compensate the investors for their losses. When we look at it, ftx has 22280000 shares in GBTC. This is worth $597 million, which has now been converted into bitcoin. ftx may be selling these in the same way. Again, Grayscale also has some investment in Ethereum trust. When ethereum etf comes out in the future, we can score a goal from here too. But the number here seems smaller. Probably ftx trustees sold this figure or they continue to sell it. So what should we infer from all this?

I think what's happening right now is a bit temporary, I'm not saying it's over. But I say temporary, so it may not be completed. But after a while, these things can balance out. But frankly, such sharp price movements when bitcoin etfs go public is an issue that will scare new investors. At the moment, I am sure that people who manage large funds are not in a hurry to invest in bitcoin. They are waiting for this fluctuation to calm down. This is how I see it. Let's see what the coming days will bring.

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