The latest statements made by Donald Trump at the "Republican Party Mid-Term Congress" have raised the question "Are the Constitution and election processes being violated?" again in the USA. created its agenda. In his speech at the opening night of the midterm congress, Trump promised that if the Republican Party wins both houses of the US Congress in the November elections, every adult American will be given $5,000. Trump's promise, of course, brought up the issue of receiving votes in exchange for money in elections in the US Constitution. However, the issue is neither that simple nor, in my opinion, legally, it does not contain that clear elements.

Let's expand on the topic a bit. The constitution is very clear: "votes cannot be purchased in exchange for money". However, Trump promises to give $5,000 not only to those who voted for him, but to all adults living in the USA and having the right to citizenship. When asked about Trump's statements; He stated that he made such a statement not for votes or to take the people to the polls, but to give back to the people the huge income that the USA has recently gained from customs duties. Vice President Vance also argued that increased customs tax revenues should be shared with the public.

Leaving the legal aspects aside for a moment, there is actually a completely different issue at play here. This pledge made by Trump would cost the US economy approximately $1.3 trillion. US customs revenues—driven up by Trump’s policies—have hit a record high of $195 billion. However, it is important to remember that, as I mentioned, these "record-breaking customs revenues" in the 2025 fiscal budget amount to only $195 billion. Yet, if Trump’s pledge were to be implemented, the cost to the US economy would be—as I also noted—$1.3 trillion. In other words, the revenue covers barely one-seventh of the pledge's cost.

From an economic standpoint, I do not consider the implementation of this pledge likely. First, this is not something solely up to Trump. Even if he wanted to proceed, such a budgetary move would require the full and unequivocal support of the US Congress; the decision rests largely with them. Even if both the House of Representatives and the Senate were controlled by Republicans, the US Congress would not embark on a process of pumping money into the market that would trigger massive hyperinflation.

Regarding the legal side, even if the matter were taken to the Supreme Court as an impeachment case, nothing would come of it, as there are significant constitutional rights that could be invoked as a defense. Therefore, I do not believe this will create legal trouble for Trump. That brings me to the issue that interests me most: how the public perceives this pledge. In other words, could this pledge actually influence the election? I don't think so, because Trump has made promises of this kind—promising direct cash payments to the public—many times before, and with one exception, none of them materialized. That exception, as you recall, was the economic support provided to the public during the pandemic. Apart from that, virtually no promises regarding monetary payouts were ever fulfilled. Perhaps that is why this is viewed as a promise that has lost much of its credibility in the eyes of the public. Furthermore, I observed the reactions at the time the statement was made: there was neither a massive outpouring of cheers nor the explosive surge of support one might have expected. It came and went like just another routine promise.

Given these economic figures and Trump’s current public approval ratings, the outcome of a midterm election held now would almost certainly result in the loss of the House of Representatives.

The key issue here is President Trump’s attempt to play every card at his disposal—and even those beyond his control—as he witnesses waning support for his party. Yet, perhaps even more significant is the fact that these efforts are increasingly proving futile. With only about a month and a half remaining until the polls open, the outcome of the November elections holds immense importance—not just for Trump, the United States, the Republicans, or the Democrats, but for the development of new policies that will shape the trajectory of the entire world.