Introduction
I am using this outlet to write about my experiences during my journey through the crypto / blockchain world.
As mentioned in my previous article, CargoX is by far my favorite crypto project and I am trying my hand at crypto valuation using CXO as an example.
For more detail on CargoX, please visit their website, the subreddit, the blue paper, or DeFi Waifu´s article on CXO tokenomics, as I am only going to give a very brief overview here.
CargoX is revolutionizing the transport industry by providing a blockchain platform for bill of lading documents and other crucial paperwork used when shipping goods. CXO is the native token of this platform and necessary for creating these documents on the blockchain.
Since the only exchange listing CXO is KuCoin (and only with ETH and BTC trading pairs), the CargoX subreddit is full of questions on how to buy CXO and I have written a short article explaining my approach to buying CXO.
The Model
In the model I described in my last article, I used data on trading volume and market cap for mid-cap coins to come up with a model to predict CXO´s market cap based on expected trading volume from retail traders and CargoX customers.
As this approach can only give an estimate for the future market cap but not for the price of CXO, I had to extend this model to factor in token burn.
Currently, 10$ worth of CXO is needed to create a document on CargoX´s platform and 70% of this is burnt in the process. This means that each transaction reduces the number of tokens in circulation and, assuming no change to the market cap, increases the value of each CXO token accordingly.
Using the assumptions from my market cap prediction, this would lead to a value per token of 2.39$ by the end of 2022, or roughly 7x the price of CXO at the time of writing.
Conclusion
This is my favorite blockchain project by far and does not really fit into the “My Crypto Failure” setting of my other articles.
I am excited to have found out about CargoX and am looking forward to the start of the Egypt project in July.
I´d be glad to get feedback on the model and the assumptions from people who know more about crypto and CargoX than I do (you can contact me on Reddit: u/MyCryptoFailure or Twitter: @TS9018) but I am pretty pleased with the outcome of this tiny after-work project.
