Within 3 months of the first positive case of COVID-19 in the US, up to 90% of Americans are now under a stay at home order. Strangely, anti-vaxxers have been largely silent during this pandemic crisis. We've all heard their multitude of reasons for not getting vaccinated. But is their logic still sensible when a COVID-19 vaccine becomes available hopefully within the next 18 months?

From my research, I found that the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services (HHS) has been keeping track of vaccine injury compensation cases. 

According to the CDC, from 2006 to 2018 over 3.4 billion doses of covered vaccines were distributed in the U.S. For petitions filed in this time period, 7,104 petitions were adjudicated by the Court, and of those 4,943 were compensated. This means for every 1 million doses of vaccine that were distributed, approximately 1 individual was compensated. - Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA), April 1, 2020

But that's not the whole story. The HHS reported that about only 30% of all compensation cases awarded by the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP) were a result of the alleged vaccine(s) causing the alleged injury. Based on a review of the evidence of the submitted petitions, this means approximately 1,483 instances of injury came from the vaccine(s).  

Let's look at the statistics:

Number of vaccine-related injuries = 1,483

Number of vaccinations = 3.4 billion

Vaccine Injury Rate in the US = 0.000044%

Now let's study the US predictions for the mortality rate attributed to COVID-19 this year.  President Trump announced on March 31 that between 100,000 to 200,000 Americans will die from contracting COVID-19.  If we are lucky, we can assume only 100,000 Americans will die from this virus.

Number of American deaths from COVID-19 = 100,000

Population of the USA who are unvaccinated against COVID-19 = 330 million (US Census Bureau's population clock from 2019)

COVID-19 mortality rate in the US = 0.0303%

Simple math shows that you have a 69,474% higher chance of dying from COVID-19 than becoming "vaccine-injured".

To my anti-vaxxer friends out there...are you really willing to take your chances by declining a vaccination? I would kindly ask you to reconsider your decision, for the benefit of the whole country.

Please stay home as much as possible, practice social-distancing, avoid unnecessary travel, and wash your hands frequently. And remember to treat everyone with kindness...we're all in this together. Stay safe out there!

Cover art: Cropped photo by Clay Banks on Unsplash

Edited: May 22, 2020 to correct math errors in the post