Hello HODLers!

Toncoin (TON) is currently striving to break out of a bearish trend that was exacerbated by the arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov. Following this event, the cryptocurrency market witnessed increased selling pressure as many investors panicked, leading to a significant decline in Toncoin’s price. However, recent market data suggests that the sentiment among investors is shifting back toward a more optimistic, bullish outlook, which could help Toncoin regain lost ground.

Key Factors Impacting Toncoin's Price Movement

1. Reduced Selling Pressure and Investor Sentiment: Investor activity data indicates that the number of active deposits of Toncoin on exchanges has significantly decreased. This decline in active deposits suggests that investors are no longer rushing to sell their assets, a potential indicator of increased confidence in the market. The initial surge in Toncoin transfers to exchanges following Durov's arrest appears to have been a knee-jerk reaction, but as the number of transfers has now dropped, it signals that the panic selling phase is waning.

2. Technical Indicators Pointing to a Reversal: Technical analysis tools, particularly the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, are hinting at a possible trend reversal for Toncoin. The MACD histogram has been showing diminishing red bars, which indicate that the bearish momentum is decreasing. The indicator is approaching a bullish crossover, a signal that often marks the beginning of a new upward trend. Should this crossover occur, it would validate that the selling pressure has substantially reduced, potentially setting the stage for Toncoin to enter a recovery phase.

Price Outlook and Potential Breakout

Toncoin is currently priced at $5.36, still struggling to recover from the steep 23 percent decline it faced in late August. Despite these losses, the cryptocurrency is showing signs of resilience and is attempting to recoup some of its recent declines. A critical resistance level for Toncoin is currently at $5.49. Successfully breaking through this barrier is crucial for Toncoin's potential upward trajectory; overcoming this resistance could allow the price to surge toward the $6 mark.

3. Key Levels and Potential Scenarios:

• If Toncoin can break above the $5.49 resistance level and turn it into a support level, it would open the path for the price to rise further, potentially reaching $6.04.
• However, there is a risk that the price may remain within a consolidation zone between $5.49 and $4.85, a range that Toncoin has previously tested. Prolonged consolidation in this zone could significantly reduce the chances of a bullish breakout, limiting the upward momentum.

In conclusion, Toncoin’s ability to break through the critical resistance level of $5.49 will be a key determinant of its near-term price trajectory. The easing of selling pressure, improving investor sentiment, and positive signals from technical indicators all contribute to the potential for a bullish breakout. However, the cryptocurrency's future performance will largely depend on whether it can overcome its current consolidation phase and sustain a move above the key resistance levels.

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