Hello HODLers!

This week, while many of the top 20 altcoins achieved double-digit gains, Toncoin (TON) failed to follow suit, due to key on-chain metrics signaling weak performance. Toncoin's price struggles can largely be attributed to the behavior of "Whales," large investors who hold significant portions of the circulating supply (between 0.1% and 1%). Whale net equity flows—a metric that indicates whether Whales are buying or selling—have shown a 117% decline over the past week, suggesting that major holders are selling rather than accumulating TON. This sell-off from large investors has intensified downward pressure on the price, currently hovering below the $5 mark.

Further data suggests waning interest among short-term holders as well. The "Addresses by Time of Hold" metric reveals that many recent TON buyers, specifically those holding for fewer than 30 days, opted to sell, adding more selling pressure and preventing a price rebound. This trend signals a lack of confidence among newer investors, making it difficult for Toncoin to build the momentum necessary for a rally toward the $7 mark.

On the technical front, TON is trading within a descending triangle pattern—a bearish formation indicating increasing selling pressure. Despite attempting a breakout from the $4.95 level, the price quickly pulled back to $4.84, indicating that the bulls’ efforts were ineffective. If this selling pressure persists, TON could dip further, possibly down to $4.45. However, should Toncoin's key metrics shift back into positive territory—if Whales resume accumulation and short-term holders show more confidence—a bullish reversal could occur. In that case, Toncoin might regain upward momentum and reach the $7.27 level, though the current trends suggest this recovery is on hold for now.

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