Since the start of the 21st century protests in Iran have become increasingly common. However, it has only been in the last 5 years that these protests have really ratchetted up to another level. The 2021-2022 protests centered around a vital thing for the Iranian population that the government had mismanaged.... Water. These protests morphed into calls for change in the economy after the Iranian stock market had crashed and food staples dramatically increased in price but was put down with brute force. Just a year later though the Mahsa Amini protests broke out. 

Prior to the current protests going on the Mahsa Amini protests (2022-2023) were considered the most significant and biggest threat to the Iranian Government after the 1979 Revolution. These protest were caused by the government's "Guidance Patrol" who was arrested by the Guidance Patrol for wearing her hijab improperly. Eyewitnesses said she was severely beaten by the officers and once arrested collapsed, was hospitalized and died three days later due to the injuries she sustained. Protests hit over 130 cities and universitas and resulted in thousands being arrested. For the first time women played a significant role in the protests and this was the first major protest that wanted the Islamic Republic overthrown. By the Spring of 2023 though the protests had largely stopped and unofficially there were changes to how the Regime policed women becoming much more lenient on head covering. Towards the end of 2023 the Regime did move to crackdown again on the lack of enforcement of hijab wearing by forcing cafe's and shops to close. In September of 2023 Iran's Parliament did pass the Hijab and Chastity Bill increasing the prison time women would face for not wearing hijabs. 

2024 was finally a year where Iran did not have any sort of large scale protests but midway through 2025 they came back with a vengeance. Once again water was what kicked off these protests as levels in dams hit critical levels and there was even talks by the Iranian Regime of having to "evacuate" the Capitol due to a lack of water. These protests never really stopped and have become part of the current protests. 

The current protests exploded due to a sharp and rapid devaluation of the Iranian rial at the end of December. This resulted in a spike in inflation and shop keepers and merchants kicking off a protest on December 28th. By December 31 protests that had started in one area of Tehran was now nationwide and growing. As they spread University students once again joined in and they kicked off the call for the Regime to be overthrown with chants including "Death to the Dictator" and "Death to Khamenei" things previously not seen. As the protests moved into the New Year the size and lengths these people were willing to go to skyrocketed. Suddenly security forces were getting attacked and in some situations killed, government buildings being set on fire, and calls for the exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi the son of the last Shah to return to Iran. 

In the face of a brutal crackdown though Iranians have continued to protest and while they initially were relying on Starlink after the government shutdown the internet on the January 8th the Regime has begun using military jammers to force even Starlink offline. Despite this though images, videos, and updates continue to flow out of Iran. Today the number killed went from 1,800 to 12,000 to now reports coming out saying it might be as high as 20,000 civilians. Not only that but groups within Iran including Sunni groups and Kurds have begun to fight back against the government with the Iranian government admitting that IRGC bases getting attacked. 

On the 10th President Trump made the statement that the US was ready to help the protesters in Iran and further told Iranian leaders that killing their protesters was a red line not to cross. Well Iran refused to listen and over the last two days there have been numerous reports of President Trump getting briefed with everything from military actions that could be taken to cyber. Today, after the news of the thousands of people being killed exploded into the headlines President Trump announced he was canceling all meetings set with the Regime and posted to his social media:

"Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING - TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price. I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY. MIGA!!! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"

Now what the help on the way is is not known. I could see a ton of options on the table including cyber attacks to disable the jammers that the Iranian military is using on Starlink as well as cyber moves to allow protesters the ability to access the internet again to coordinate. Obviously military strikes are going to be on the table as well but I am not sure what sort of effect they would have. This afternoon for instance the National Army of Kurdistan the military wing of the Kurdistan Freedom Party announced they had captured a headquarters of the IRGC in the Northwestern city of Kermanshah. Striking targets that either are under control of the protesters or could fall to the protesters would not be beneficial to anyone. 

President Trump has made some follow up comments throughout the day highlighting that if the Regime goes through with the executions of protesters tomorrow there will be dramatic consequences. I think if that does happen we could see a rapid build up in the Middle East and moves to respond militarily before the week ends. With thousands facing execution and thousands more dead there is not going to be much, if any pushback against action on Iran. 

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