That's what leading economic indicators are signalling
22 Nov 2023 2 minute read 1 comment fmiren
The level of credit risk varies over and responds to business cycles maybe not very directly but in a systematic way. Credit risk reaches its peak during recessions when corporate defaults are common across the economy. Therefore, credit risk premia...
21 Nov 2023 4 minute read 0 comments fmiren
Debt-deflation dynamics FED’s actions during the GFC FED’s policy response to the 2007–2008 crisis proved to be effective. (Here we don’t discuss the long-term consequences of FED’s policy which can be debated). If Bernanke was successful in his acti...
26 Oct 2023 2 minute read 0 comments fmiren
Summary of finding about the sovereign defaults and inflation from "This Time is Different" by C. Reinhart & K. Rogoff How to protect your crypto portfolio from inflation: https://www.publish0x.com/bringing-us-treasurys-onto-the-chain/how-to-protec...
19 Oct 2023 4 minute read 0 comments fmiren
Introduction Geopolitical instability all over the world came to a climax in the war between Russia and Ukraine which caused energy crisis in Europe. Now, we see Israel - Hamas conflict. On top of political risks, there are significant economic and f...
17 Oct 2023 4 minute read 0 comments fmiren
In light of the recent fears of recession and several bank failures I think it's time to talk about patterns of banking crises. How and why do they occur? Can we predict and avoid them? One of the best books on the history of financial crises is “Thi...
13 Sep 2023 1 minute read 0 comments fmiren
Balance sheet recession is one kind of economic recession that differs from other “ordinary” recessions. It is an environment in which private sector pays down its debt. Since this implies less corporate spending or investing, it can lead to contract...
4 Jun 2023 2 minute read 2 comments fmiren
Finally, two sides agreed to a deal on the debt ceiling issue. Tha main part of the agreement is that there'll be a two-year suspension on the debt ceiling. The ceiling is the cap for the amount the government ia llowed to borrow. Suspending that cap...
31 May 2023 3 minute read 0 comments fmiren
Summary of finding about the sovereign defaults and inflation from "This Time is Different" by C. Reinhart & K. Rogoff. Read about banking crises from the same book: https://www.publish0x.com/is-recession-coming/banking-crises-xzgoldy How to protec...
29 May 2023 4 minute read 0 comments fmiren
In light of the recent fears of recession and several bank failures I think it's time to talk about patterns of banking crises. How and why do they occur? Can we predict and avoid them? One of the best books on the history of financial crises is “Thi...
26 May 2023 1 minute read 0 comments fmiren
Consumer Loans: Credit Cards and Other Revolving Plans, All Commercial Banks Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans, All Commercial Banks Consumer loans are rising. If we look at the last 1 year, credit card loans are increasing almost in a li...
