That's what leading economic indicators are signalling
26 Apr 2023 4 minute read 0 comments fmiren
Monetary policy 101 Debt-deflation dynamics FED’s actions during the GFC FED’s policy response to the 2007–2008 crisis proved to be effective. (Here we don’t discuss the long-term consequences of FED’s policy which can be debated). If Bernanke wa...
21 Apr 2023 7 minute read 0 comments fmiren
Patterns of financial crises In light of the recent fears of recession I decided to summarize one of the best books on crises, “This time is different” by C. Reinhart & K. Rogoff. The book describes financial and economic crises since 1300 up to...
2 Apr 2023 1 minute read 0 comments fmiren
Market risk, volatility, and business cycles We know that exogenous factors, such as major geopolitical events (wars, trade wars, regional conflicts, invasions etc.), can and do create significant volatility. For example, a geopolitical tension, ev...
20 Mar 2023 2 minute read 2 comments fmiren
Introduction Business cycless and economic indicators Multiple indicators were developed by NBER to better understand and track business cycles. There are three types of indicators. Leading, coincident, and lagging indicators predict, date, and follo...
