Why I'm bullish on BAT and a common Trading Mistake

By raven | Investment | 4 Oct 2019


As you probably know, BAT is one of the tokens with clearest purpose among the altcoins available today. In summary, its demand is fed by the following dynamics between three parts:

Advertisers: advertisers pay in BAT to show their ads to users of the Brave Browser.

Users: users of the Brave Browser are paid by the advertisers to look at their ads. These users can withdraw the BATs in exchange for fiat currency or use their BATs to tip their favorite content producers. Except for the withdrawing part, all this is integrated seamlessly in the Brave Browser, and the users don't have to do much nor give much personal information in order to receive BATs and use them for tipping.

Publishers: content producers register with the Brave Rewards program, to be able to be paid in BAT, which in turn they can use to tip other users or withdraw via the Uphold wallet.

As said above, everything is painless, except for the withdrawing part, which requires an account and KYC with Uphold. Brave is looking for integration with other exchanges, so in the future you might be able to withdraw with other companies such as Coinbase, for example.

What is promising in BAT as investment is that the Brave Browser is already functioning, and it is fast, private and offer financial benefits to the users that other browsers don't. The userbase of Brave is growing at a staggering 10% per month according to Brendan Eich (Brave's CEO) and as evidence we can see similar trend in the growth of users in the /r/Brave_Browser subreddit (figure below) and in the number of publishers registered for Brave Rewards. Now is the growth of Brave related to the growth in the price of BAT?

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The bet here is that Brave will be among the top browers, which is to be expected as it already has more than 10 million downloads in Google Playstore and is growing fast, as shown above. This will bring more and more advertisers to the platform. Now a user receives 0.05 BAT to watch one ad, which is 70% of the total ad cost, so we can assume a company will pay 0.07 BAT to show one ad. The cost per click (CPC) figures for two big names in the field, Google and Facebook, are around $1-$2 and $0.30-$0.55, respectively. This data can vary, but let's be pessimistic and assume a CPC of $0.30. Let's be even more pessimistic and assume that, since Brave is not as prevalent as Google and Facebook, it will have a lower cost to attract advertisers, so a CPC of $0.15. Still, this gives us a figure of 1 BAT = $2.14, for a total BAT marketcap of $3.21 billion, which does not seen unrealistic, given the size of the digital advertisement market, which only grows, and puts BAT on par with LTC, at 7th biggest marketcap.

Needless to say, this is a great investment opportunity (but do not take it as advice, do your own research!). With the current price of $0.19, this represents more than 10x growth. Another point to illustrate how solid BAT is is that -- if you were looking at the markets yesterday you will know -- while all major coins were dropping in value yesterday, including BTC, BAT is accumulating a growth of around 9% in the last 24h (at the time of writing), effectively making it the best performer among the big marketcap coins (figure below - source: coinmarketcap.com). You know something is a good investment when it performs well during a bad cycle of the market as a whole.

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Now, an easy mistake to make is trying to wait for the price to reach a particular value, trying to save every cent out of each BAT. In the end the price soared (probably fueled by the recent update to Brave that allows you to withdraw your BAT), and I don't predict any fall below the $0.16 support anytime soon, so you end up paying more for it. Lesson learned: if you know that an asset is strongly undervalued, buy it. Don't wait for the price to fall 1 or 2 more cents. You cannot predict small fluctuations of the market. And then HODL.

Edit: At this moment BAT is the 2nd best 24h performer of the top 100 tokens according to coinmarketcap.com.

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raven
raven

I've heard of bitcoin a long time ago, but only recently I became interested in investment in general, which brought me to the world of cryptocurrencies. I am also interested in learning to develop blockchain applications.


Investment
Investment

In this blog I will talk mainly about cryptocurrencies and other forms of investment. The intention is to share and discuss ideas, so do not take any of this as investment advice.

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