The possibility of disruption to the Cryptoverse is a very real prospect. While many will dismiss black swan events as highly improbable there are countless examples of the impossible becoming the ordinary. At the turn of the last century, it would’ve seemed impossible to transverse the planet in the current routine fashion of jet travel, within one human lifetime we went from the rudimentary flying machine of the Wright brothers to landing on the moon. Impossibilities and the improbable can become the ordinary in the shake of a lamb’s tail. It is imperative we are ever vigilant and scanning the horizons for the gathering of storm clouds before they break upon us.
The previous post in this series discussed disruption the lifeblood of the Cryptoverse, electricity. An electromagnetic pulse attack (EMP) as mentioned in the last post could be a one-off event, a rogue attack, or it could be the opening salvo in a wider war.
Threat 3: WAR
Wars have been the scourge and bane of humanity time immemorial, and the sword of Damocles hangs ever present over our contemporary world as well. Many dismiss the threat of major power conflict; USA-Russia-China; many say there is too much to lose, or that economics and trade will trump strife. These arguments do not stand the test of history. The same arguments were made in the summer of 1914 about Britannia and the German empire. The world inches ever closer to conflict. The post-World War Two order is unravelling nations are becoming more belligerent and the two great powers of America and China are squaring up for a fight. Nationalism and Statism are virulent plagues within their respective populations. The twentieth century kept map makers in business with the rise and fall of nations and empires, what will the map of the twenty second century look like?
Clarity as to how a major power conflict would unfold or be concluded is an impossible prediction. Hopefully a nuclear exchange could be avoided, but whichever result there would be dire consequences for the worlds population. Cyberspace would become a battlefield as well and this would have seriously negative effects on the Cryptoverse. The internet could even become balkanized as different powers vie for supremacy.
In a sense this process is already beginning with China’s great firewall, Russia’s attempt to build an internet moat, and many other authoritarian countries simply turning off the internet when their people threaten their power. In the long run the fragmentation of the internet wouldn’t be good for globalism and humanity in general. Fragmentation of the internet while negative wouldn’t pose an existential threat to the Cryptoverse, despite the continuous “bans” by the Chinese Communist Party the population of China is still active in Crypto. However, a nuclear exchange between the major powers would be devastating not only ending the Cryptoverse but also most of the population in the northern hemisphere of the planet.
Threat 4: Economic Depression
Countless triggers could plunge the world into an economic depression. With the GFC, and the Covid recession nations have delayed the inevitable economic retracement. The central banks of the major industrial nations have “stimulated” their ailing economies for over a decade, but the medicine is beginning to show signs of being ineffective. With zero interest and large-scale monetary manipulation these gate keepers of the capitalist economy have used up their ammunition and the tide of debt is about to overrun the ramparts. The debt cycle, no matter how delayed, will come knocking. The Federal reserve bank of the United States may have made grievous errors recently that will make our house guest much less pleasant.
The housing, equities, and bond markets may all be in serious bubble territory and all three deflating will have monumental effects. The Cryptoverse is not insulated from the wider economy, in fact crypto could act as a canary in the coal mine which will signal a “top” as they are considered a risky asset class that investor will flee from as they panic. A normal economic recession, or even mild depression wouldn’t threaten the existence of the Cryptoverse. A prolonged severe depression which devastates nations could undermine the foundations of Crypto.
At what level does mining BTC become unprofitable? If the value of Bitcoin stays below this threshold for an extended period of time how low can the hash rate go? If people are starving and desperate the shit coin shenanigans will be well and over. While this flushing of shitcoins may ultimately be good a prolonged economic depression could fundamentally challenge the world order. Leading inevitably back to the third threat that of war.
Threat 5: The Unknown
The fundamental nature of a black swan is its unknowability. In hindsight the outline of this foul bird becomes apparent, but as it approaches with the exception of some Cassandras its shape is unknown. It’s difficult to see over the horizon, what could be lurking there? Quantum computers, AI, Quantum AI, the singularity, Robot Overlords, Zombies, Aliens, who knows? Like watching a horror movie, it is certainly a little exciting. There are so many extremely intelligent and savvy people involved in the Cryptoverse that the adaptability and evolution of the space is not in doubt. Crypto may be even more resilient than our civilization. With the threat of war, climate change and other trans-national challenges, maybe the Dao of Crypto is the answer.
People always are looking to technology to “cure” the evils of the world but this scalpel cuts both ways. Technology is responsible for both our greatest achievements and the capacity to undo all. Technology has allowed for humanities great exploitation of the Earth, and may also help to heal our damage. While the general tenor of this post may come off negative, it's better to be prepared for the worst and all that. All clichés aside we can never lose hope and optimism even in the depths of the abyss. Any challenges to the Cryptoverse and to humanity in general will hopefully make us stronger in the long term. The stakes have never been higher.
TIME is the most valuable coin and thank you for spending yours reading my post. I hope you have a wonderful day.
>>> Anarchiss <<<
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