Investment Disclaimer:

• I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
• Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
• This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post. 

1. Top 3 Good News for ADA HODLERS !!!

• Cardano Africa Special: IOG Partners With World Mobile To Connect 250K People
  Statistic as of 2021-05-03 12:33 AM EDT: 86 positive votes, 1 negative vote
  
  Among the first announcement to come out of the long-awaited Cardano Africa Special, Input-Output Global revealed a partnership with World Mobile. The cooperation follows IOG’s global vision in the region and aims to “connect the unconnected”. Initially, the partners will focus their efforts on Zanzibar and greater Tanzania. They will use a unique approach to […]
  (Extracted from CryptoPanic)

• Ethiopia deploys Cardano’s blockchain to track student performance
  Statistic as of 2021-05-03 12:33 AM EDT: 83 positive votes, 2 negative votes
  
  Cardano has confirmed its partnership with the Ethiopian government to use the platform’s blockchain in streamlining the country’s education system... Continue reading
  (Extracted from CryptoPanic)

• Trailblazing Cardano Makes Major Strides In Africa, Pundits Call $10 ADA Price
  Statistic as of 2021-05-03 12:33 AM EDT: 77 positive votes, 3 negative votes
  
  The sixth-largest cryptocurrency, Cardano (ADA) spurred a bullish run for hours on the market, yesterday, gaining an impressive 10% value increase after it announced the kick-off of its Cardano Africa project. The project would see the cryptocurrency giant, partner with the government of Ethiopia to develop the world’s largest blockchain database system for its educational […]
  (Extracted from CryptoPanic)

2. How Cardano Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

As of 03 May 2021, Cardano has made a cumulative return of 3995.22% since Jan 2020 and 763.95%  since Jan 2021. It is currently the 4th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.

3. Technical Analysis on Cardano

3.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when ADA is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of ADA (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of ADA (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 03 May 2021, VWAP is suggesting that ADA is trading higher than its average price range of USD 1.20 to USD 1.25 per ADA.

3.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of ADA closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that ADA is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that ADA is losing momentum. 

As of 03 May 2021, MACD is suggesting that ADA is gaining momentum.

3.3. Bollinger Band

Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of ADA
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of ADA on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of ADA from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of ADA

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that ADA is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that ADA is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 03 May 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that ADA is trading at its fair value (i.e. neither overvalued nor undervalued).

3.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that ADA is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that ADA is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 03 May 2021, RSI is suggesting that ADA trading at its fair value (i.e. neither overvalued nor undervalued).

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge holds a neutral stance on the short-term price outlook of Cardano, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

4. Cardano Risk Profile

Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Cardano defined above, ADA seems to trade at a higher risk level on 03 May 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 23 Apr 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at 19.82% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

5. Price Simulation for Cardano

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual ADA price movement over the last week ?

Over the last 7 days, ADA has been trading in the higher price range of quantdoge simulations, indicating that ADA was trading near at an overbought level over the last week.

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If you are into Polkadot (DOT) and Bitcoin (BTC), I have made similar analysis on them at:

• 2 May 2021 (SUN)- Polkadot (DOT) Daily Risk Report
  
  
• 1 May 2021 (FRI)- Bitcoin (BTC) Daily Risk Report

If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates.