27 NOV 2021 (SAT)- Solana (SOL) Report Card

27 NOV 2021 (SAT)- Solana (SOL) Report Card

By quantdoge | Daily Crypto Risk Report | 27 Nov 2021


Investment Disclaimer:

  • I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
  • Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
  • This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.

1A. Top 3 Good News for SOL HODLERS !!!

1B. Top Bad News for SOL HODLERS !!!

2. How Solana Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

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As of 26 Nov 2021, Solana has made a cumulative return of 20,697.18% since Jan 2020 and 10,728.21%  since Jan 2021. It is currently the  greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.

3. Technical Analysis on Solana

3.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

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VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when SOL1 is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of SOL1 (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of SOL1 (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 26 Nov 2021, VWAP is suggesting that SOL is losing significant momentum.

3.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

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MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of SOL1 closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that SOL1 is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that SOL1 is losing momentum. 

As of 26 Nov 2021, MACD is suggesting that SOL is losing momentum.

3.3. Bollinger Band

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Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of SOL1
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of SOL1 on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of SOL1 from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of SOL1

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that SOL1 is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that SOL1 is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 26 Nov 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that SOL has been oversold.

3.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

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Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that SOL1 is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that SOL1 is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 26 Nov 2021, RSI is suggesting that SOL is neither oversold nor overbought.

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge holds a neutral stance on the outlook of SOL, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

4. Solana Risk Profile

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Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Solana defined above, SOL seems to trade at a greater risk level on 26 Nov 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 16 Nov 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at -14.35% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

5. Price Simulation for Solana

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual SOL price movement over the last week ?

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Over the last 7 days, SOL has been trading near the median of quantdoge simulations, indicating that SOL is neither oversold nor overbought.  


6. SOL Community Analytics

Number of SOL Followers In The Past 24 Months

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During the past 24 months, Solana followers have increased 1,819.07% from 52,656 to 1,010,505 on Twitter and increased 5,360.29% from 1,813 to 98,995 on Reddit.

Monthly increment of Solana Twitter followers peaked on Sep 2021 and its monthly increment of Reddit followers peaked on Sep 2021.

Number of SOL Followers In The Last 30 Days

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In the last 30 days alone, Solana followers have grown 24.63% from 810,777 to 1,010,505 on Twitter and grown 26.46 % from 78,281 to 98,995 on Reddit.

Daily increment of Solana Twitter followers peaked on 09 Nov 2021 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 07 Nov 2021.

7. Google Trends Analytics

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solana reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-09-05 with a Google Score of 100
Over the last quarter, solana Google Score has increased 2.65 % from 63.0 to 64.67
Over the last 6 months, solana Google Score has increased 324.04 % from 15.25 to 64.67


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Based on Google searches, solana is most sought after in Liechtenstein , followed by Turks & Caicos Islands and Bermuda this month.

If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates.

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quantdoge
quantdoge

Data scientist in crypto and blockchain space.


Daily Crypto Risk Report
Daily Crypto Risk Report

This blog was created by quantdoge, a data scientist in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space to publish daily risk reports on different cryptocurrencies. All published reports in this blog were analyzed with in-house algorithmic trading and quantitative risk management technology. ** Investment disclaimer: ** I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.

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