22 NOV 2021 (MON)- ChainLink (LINK) Report Card

22 NOV 2021 (MON)- ChainLink (LINK) Report Card

By quantdoge | Daily Crypto Risk Report | 22 Nov 2021


Investment Disclaimer:

  • I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
  • Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
  • This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.

1A. Top 3 Good News for GRT HODLERS !!!

2. How Chainlink Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

965e5bd68bb16b09e7fdf3f2152145a3b9deba3c3966ef9946eadbc431886ef3.jpg

As of 21 Nov 2021, Chainlink has made a cumulative return of 1,503.62% since Jan 2020 and 229.01%  since Jan 2021. It is currently the 15th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.

3. Technical Analysis on Chainlink

3.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

4d7e2479f7135bfa4c33dfc8c3af7a923c98bdcf56715d61b242465cf6c45474.jpg

VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when LINK is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of LINK (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of LINK (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 21 Nov 2021, VWAP is suggesting that LINK is losing momentum.

3.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
b3c3afa86f201d9b4ebbe18572c0438fdceb703fd1f47a5d7d8febdf0204193e.jpg

 

MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of LINK closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that LINK is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that LINK is losing momentum. 

As of 21 Nov 2021, MACD is suggesting that LINK is losing momentum.

3.3. Bollinger Band

89c206ff0b8847b1422762938cf527f68432793889cbb37b5a7feab9cf3d8991.jpg

Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of LINK
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of LINK on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of LINK from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of LINK

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that LINK is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that LINK is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 21 Nov 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that LINK has been severely oversold.

3.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

c8551207670d2a2cac151ae00649f1c6055a1bf2ed575d2e808834bcba173762.jpg

Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that LINK is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that LINK is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 21 Nov 2021, RSI is suggesting that LINK has been severely oversold.

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge holds a bullish view on the short-term price action of LINK, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

4. Chainlink Risk Profile

71e2941b799a85ee2e7db0661ed9f95fa9f32d67483c7c99c8213fa5ee0ae5eb.jpg

5714fee8e8648c251c2d6b2244fe36e8db93f66985b30ee9793f4bff42a530fa.jpg

Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Chainlink defined above, LINK seems to trade at a greater risk level on 21 Nov 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 11 Nov 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at -21.29% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

5. Price Simulation for Chainlink

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual LINK price movement over the last week ?

b8a2ba2a7a71f9f553dc2d31f3e74d03ad1045537abb6ee413fe4bcfad5dfaf0.jpg

Over the last 7 days, LINK has been trading near the lower 25th percentile range of quantdoge simulations, indicating that LINK is oversold and undervalued. 


6. LINK Community Analytics

Number of LINK Followers In The Past 24 Months

c7245f97e8a89ef84e7bcf484df92280f3418e65b345703cd78f8f70c0eae6aa.jpg

During the past 24 months, Chainlink followers have grown 1,538.12 % from 37,753 to 618,438 on Twitter and grown 514.14 % from 11,716 to 71,953 on Reddit.
21123be04b4667ca1ea99b42561c4c0d57038f4757c00a0b612dededb47ae58a.jpg

cdf8f91c4ac4ae9300b2431c35fb29d9a65725d99c2e39981c2c745c2fb330c6.jpg

Monthly increment of Chainlink Twitter followers peaked on May 2021 and its monthly increment of Reddit followers peaked on Feb 2021.

Number of LINK Followers In The Last 30 Days

924ea7ebad48e95f0a68ab478ad7211b7b1cacc02805d45de2958284c9ae4065.jpg

In the last 30 days alone, Chainlink followers have grown 11.44 % from 554,933 to 618,438 on Twitter and grown 3.5 % from 69,517 to 71,953 on Reddit.
7013ce554d51776fa78da21eb7ae7e1a1d39b09d7654d4731a2a503c25f9abde.jpg

c5b5d2713748b6031dba8fd84b53ce6e8548ada9740af785166599e365f8b9b2.jpg
Daily increment of Chainlink Twitter followers peaked on 04 Nov 2021 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 05 Nov 2021.

7. Google Trends Analytics

d8969a35ffbaf014df5cbd67ec4606dbdaf62ef527bfba187ba2ea6cf24be0ca.jpg

Chainlink reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-05-02 with a Google Score of 73
Over the last quarter, Chainlink Google Score has increased 26.32 % from 23.75 to 30.0
Over the last 6 months, Chainlink Google Score has increased 34.83 % from 22.25 to 30.0

0ceea0bb9cae7aac06fe73ba6ff5b903bc4f6702173e460fe4c9334b63277450.jpg

Based on Google searches, LINK is most sought after in St. Helena, followed by Slovenia and Belgium this month.

If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates.

How do you rate this article?


66

0

quantdoge
quantdoge

Data scientist in crypto and blockchain space.


Daily Crypto Risk Report
Daily Crypto Risk Report

This blog was created by quantdoge, a data scientist in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space to publish daily risk reports on different cryptocurrencies. All published reports in this blog were analyzed with in-house algorithmic trading and quantitative risk management technology. ** Investment disclaimer: ** I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.

Send a $0.01 microtip in crypto to the author, and earn yourself as you read!

20% to author / 80% to me.
We pay the tips from our rewards pool.