Investment Disclaimer:

• I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
• Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
• This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.
• I do hold a long position in Stellar Lumen (XLM) as a token holder.

1A. Top 2 Good News for XLM HODLERS !!!

• Stellar partners tap USDC for remittances between Europe and Africa
  Statistic as of 2021-12-14 08:04 AM EDT: 26 positive votes, 0 negative vote
  
  Flutterwave is teaming up Tempo Payments to use USDC on Stellar to target Africa’s enormous remittances market.
  
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)
• Stellar Soars on MoneyGram Partnership News
  Statistic as of 2021-12-14 08:04 AM EDT: 13 positive votes, 0 negative vote
  
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)

2. How Stellar Lumen Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

As of 13 Dec 2021, Stellar Lumen has made a cumulative return of 576.58% since Jan 2020 and 198.02%  since Jan 2021. It is currently the 16th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.

3. Technical Analysis on Stellar Lumen

3.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when XLM is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of XLM (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of XLM (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 13 Dec 2021, VWAP is suggesting that XLM is losing significant momentum.

3.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of XLM closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that XLM is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that XLM is losing momentum. 

As of 13 Dec 2021, MACD is suggesting that XLM is losing significant momentum.

3.3. Bollinger Band

Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of XLM
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of XLM on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of XLM from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of XLM

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that XLM is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that XLM is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 13 Dec 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that XLM is being oversold.

3.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that XLM is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that XLM is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 13 Dec 2021, RSI is suggesting that XLM is being oversold to a support level on the nearest 14-day trading window.

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge is bullish on XLM, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

4. Stellar Lumen Risk Profile

Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Stellar Lumen defined above, XLM seems to trade at a higher risk level on 13 Dec 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 03 Dec 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at -23.64% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

5. Monte Carlo Price Simulation for Stellar Lumen

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual XLM price movement over the last week ?

Over the last 7 days, XLM is trading below the median (i.e. 50th percentile) path of quantdoge simulations, indicating that XLM is being oversold to an undervalued position.

6. XLM Community Analytics

Number of XLM Followers In The Past 24 Months

During the past 24 months, Stellar Lumen followers have grown 152.47 % from 279,005 to 704,402 on Twitter and grown 97.6 % from 105,558 to 208,583 on Reddit.

Monthly increment of Stellar Lumen Twitter followers peaked on Feb 2021 and its monthly increment of Reddit followers peaked on Feb 2021.

Number of XLM Followers In The Last 30 Days

In the last 30 days alone, Stellar Lumen followers have grown 3.14 % from 682,939 to 704,402 on Twitter and grown 1.04 % from 206,443 to 208,583 on Reddit.

Daily increment of Stellar Lumen Twitter followers peaked on 18 Nov 2021 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 16 Nov 2021.

7. Google Trends Analytics

stellar lumens reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-05-09 with a Google Score of 39
Over the last quarter, stellar lumens Google Score has decreased 35.19 % from 10.8 to 7.0
Over the last 6 months, stellar lumens Google Score has increased 40.0 % from 5.0 to 7.0

"stellar lumens" is mainly sought on Google from Estonia, follow by Lithuania and Puerto Rico this month.

8. Developer Activities Analytics

Fork

Fork refers to the amount of time where the Github repo of current cryptocurrency is being copied. Higher fork number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more interest in the developers community who likes to explore more on the deep technical of this project.

Stellar forks increased 14.61% from 828 to 949 in the past year.

Star

Star refers to the number of developers who bookmark the Github repo of current cryptocurrency. Higher star number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more general interest in the developers community.

Stellar stars increased 14.1% from 2,504 to 2,857 in the past year.

Pull Request

Pull request contributor refers to developer who has made a successful improvement/ modification on the Github repo of this current cryptocurrency project. Higher number of pull request contributors could mean that there is a high number of commitment given by developers to this cryptocurrency project.

However, a low number also could mean that the developer community of this project applies a strict standard when it comes to code review, so only developers who have published a high quality code with highly impactful features got approved.

Stellar pull request contributors increased 6.25% from 64 to 68 in the past year.

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