Investment Disclaimer:

• I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
• Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
• This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.

1A. Top 3 Good News for MANA HODLERS !!!

• Grayscale Adds $2.5 Billion in XLM, LINK, BAT, MANA and Other Altcoins
  Statistic as of 2021-11-13 09:34 AM EDT: 37 positive votes, 0 negative vote
  
  Top cryptocurrency fund Grayscale has purchased $2.5 billion worth of popular altcoins, however, its Bitcoin holdings have been shrinking.
  
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)
  
  
• Metaverse tokens MANA and SAND record double-digit gains as the market sees red
  Statistic as of 2021-11-13 09:34 AM EDT: 35 positive votes, 4 negative votes
  
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)
  
  

• Decentraland Rides Facebook’s Metaverse Wave Targeting $5.60
  Statistic as of 2021-11-13 09:34 AM EDT: 11 positive votes, 1 negative vote
  
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)
  
  

2. How Decentraland Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

As of 12 Nov 2021, Decentraland has made a cumulative return of 10,641.75% since Jan 2020 and 323.2%  since Jan 2021. It is currently the 11th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.

3. Technical Analysis on Decentraland

3.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when MANA is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of MANA (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of MANA (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 12 Nov 2021, VWAP is suggesting that MANA has gained a huge momentum.

3.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of MANA closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that MANA is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that MANA is losing momentum. 

As of 12 Nov 2021, MACD is suggesting that MANA has gained a huge momentum.

3.3. Bollinger Band

Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of MANA
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of MANA on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of MANA from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of MANA

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that MANA is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that MANA is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 12 Nov 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that MANA is neither overbought nor oversold.

3.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that MANA is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that MANA is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 12 Nov 2021, RSI is suggesting that MANA is trading at an oversold position.

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge is bullish on MANA in the near term, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

4. Decentraland Risk Profile

Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Decentraland defined above, MANA seems to trade at a similar risk level on 12 Nov 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 02 Nov 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at -22.44% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

5. Price Simulation for Decentraland

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual MANA price movement over the last week ?

Over the last 7 days, MANA has been trading above the 75th quantile of quantdoge simulations, indicating that MANA has been overbought.

6. MANA Community Analytics

Number of MANA Followers In The Past 24 Months

During the past 24 months, Decentraland followers have grown 428.59 % from 45,864 to 242,431 on Twitter and grown 738.38 % from 6,405 to 53,698 on Reddit.

Monthly increment of Decentraland Twitter and Reddit followers peaked on Nov 2021.

Number of MANA Followers In The Last 30 Days

In the last 30 days alone, Decentraland followers have grown 33.32 % from 181,845 to 242,431 on Twitter and grown 40.59 % from 38,196 to 53,698 on Reddit.

 

Daily increment of Decentraland Twitter followers peaked on 31 Oct 2021 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 31 Oct 2021.

If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates.